Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (48825)	8/3/2000 2:11:04 AM
From: SBHX	Respond to of 93625

Zeev, agreed, DRAM is used in lots of things --- graphics cards's frame buffer, cache for HDs, phones, microwaves, automobiles. I was just used to thinking about PCs and SIMMS and now DIMMs, so the numbers did not seem to add up at first. I could sit down and get a spreadsheet, but it seems that there's still a shortfall for the $20B number in 99 if I take each HD to have 1MB cache (more than generous) and each PC ships with 64MB, and avg graphics cards are 16MB, it starts to become harder to get the number, graphics dram typically costs more, but the makers are such big buyers with guaranteed long term supply agreements, that they tend to get good prices. A rough guess would be there's still missing $ in there. Perhaps game boxes ( not enough PS2 to make a difference, but lots of PS1)? But the smaller dram are also more expensive / MB, so this is really hard to nail down without the actual numbers. Perhaps the dataquest numbers include old dram like FP, EDO, but even if they did, that can't be very big, the only one I can think of that definitely add up to $ , is flash (very expensive / MB). Anyway, I agree your numbers look reasonable. If MU signs, that is a clear sign that fair value for rmbs is 100. Which gives it a P/E of 25 at your peak cycle shipment for memory. That's a fair P/E since at the peak, it would mean, there is no more growth left from the memory royalties alone, unless the peak was higher than dataquest numbers. But MU still has to sign for that $ figure to be real. BTW, I'm glad I'm not drawn into that 'willingly pay thousands of dollars for more performance' argument, or that 'character' argument or the 'all rmbs bears are dope peddling animal right activist' argument, or the 'all rmbs bulls live in trailer parks' argument, this site is pure entertainment and worth a chuckle. Plus the rest of us can be in the audience and join in. Just as long as we all remember that the audience in Jerry Springer ALWAYS gets the last word (except for Jerry himself), and we'll all be happy campers. BTW2 : I noticed that decent rational people I spoke with in the past can be mad as hell about something. I think this site tends to make the most rational and considerate people froth at the mouth and mutter curses. Maybe if we take away the insults and degrading prose, everybody will realize that it's more fun to just respond with comedy, instead of trading insults. But hey, I've always wished I was a comedian, and grab each open mike I can if the room is empty. Did you hear the one about....? SbH