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To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 8:12:32 AM
From: w2j2  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 10714
 
Thanks, Uncle! Excellent post! wj



To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 8:27:40 AM
From: Ron  Respond to of 10714
 
Amen, brother, tell it ALL, brother.
Still got my original CREE from way back when.



To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 9:43:26 AM
From: patricksullivan1  Respond to of 10714
 
Cree's backlog with this new contract is $147M. The CFO
predicted 60% revenue growth this year (probably a conservative estimate) which projects to $173M and an EPS
of $1.59. Seems like they should easily meet and exceed the
numbers since the fiscal year has just begun, they have not
really started booking 2nd half of the year, no RF contracts
have been announced yet, and there are no contracts for the new ultra violet LED which will ship in the 2nd half.
The only thing in the Q4 numbers that concerned me was the 13% sequential revenue growth. I researched that and it
appears to be seasonal. The corresponding quarter a year ago
had lower sequential growth.

Pat



To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 11:08:35 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10714
 
unclewest: Thanks for sharing...

You have clearly researched CREE very carefully...the company is delivering some impressive results (and new contracts too)...i have passed your comments onto my relatives. Unfortunately CREE is NOT gaining the respect it deserves in the market. i carefully examine market sentiment when i invest now....that is one reason i chose to make AVCI my largest position last friday (its IPO day)...the market can not seem to get enough great new fiber optics investments...AVCI has some revolutionary new router technology, a great new fiber optics GM they just hired from Lucent, Williams Communications and Enron Broadband doing large scale testing of their new product, Nortel as a major shareholder, Morgan Stanley as a lead underwriter, a very small float, and Cisco even tried to buy the firm before it went public. I LOVE those factors. This company clearly has not crossed the chasm yet. If their products quickly gain widespread adoption then they will command a very high market cap. Right now an investment in AVCI is like a venture investment. My hunch is the company will deliver for investors or be bought out for a nice premium....the institutions can't seem to get enough of the shares <g>....i am up about 55% since I bought the stock 3 times last Friday afternoon...there are no guarantees with this one BUT I really like the outlook.

Someday I may re-enter some of my favorites -- like CMGI, CREE, SEBL, etc...Right now I am going to stay invested in the fiber optics field (primarily in AVCI and in some JNPR).

Thanks again for sharing.

Best Regards,

Scott

BTW, here is an interesting update on AVCI....

ragingbull.altavista.com



To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 11:10:53 AM
From: mmbw  Respond to of 10714
 
Thank you for your thorough response on CREE. It was thoughtful of you to spend so much time calming the nerves of some of the CREE'ITES. I was lucky to discover this shiny pebble last summer. I confess to playing the up-down nature of CREE (in IRA) and have been mostly successful. After not holding the stock since selling in April I got the itch to buy it under 100. So I jumped in at 98 yesterday before the crazy-i-ness broke. Now I'm debating whether to get more even though I don't normally practice averaging down.

Glad you decided to hold Tekboy. This shiny pebble just needs a little polishing to be a gem of a stock. Sorry- I got carried away especially since I also own another gem- gmst.

IBD- Have used it for nearly two years and do see stocks go to E. Last year around this time I believe it happened to EMC. It is my understanding that sometimes it is best to buy companies when they are out of favor, etc... there are many reasons. I'm only sorry I didn't buy EMC or INTC when they were not popular.
As far as delivery IBD is good. Last winter I had to go to Long Island for a month and than NJ for 1 1/2 months and IBD found me. It's hard to believe that the paper was a bright spot in my day during those trying times.After driving home to CA it was waiting on my door step. I enjoy reading it but again I don't always follow it religiously when buying a G & K or shiny pebble.

Martha



To: unclewest who wrote (3444)8/3/2000 11:10:49 PM
From: sbaker23  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10714
 
unclewest-your measured and rational take on things has been rocketed around the boards today...your honest and practical insights set the standard for all...thanks again.

Your mention of JDSU in the context of the blue laser --
i do not believe jdsu's pump lasers have anything to do with cree's laser...in addition to being used for totally different applications...i assure you they are miles away from the price point...

is certainly right on, but SDLI, which may or may not become JDSU, is more worrisome. They have a patent on a tunable blue laser using a lithium niobate waveguide which has the interesting ability to change an emitted red wavelength to a blue wavelength..
of some concern is this statement in the patent application:

Laser devices in accord with the present invention are very compact, with overall dimensions approximating 1 cm in length, making the devices suitable for a wide variety of applications, including consumer electronics and industrial applications.

164.195.100.11

Don't know about cost, power consumption, lifetime, etc...you'd think all would be less favorable than Cree's approach, but WTFDIK

Remember that MVIS has an alliance with Gemfire, the leading world supplier of lithium niobate waveguide material....