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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gancho who wrote (4012)	8/3/2000 9:05:13 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

gancho, Berg and Shugart in their prior corporate life used the "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" quite successfully. I am not criticizing this approach, I just point out that it has greater risks to corporate survival if they do not succeed. Since I have no inside information or a crystal ball to tell me if they will succeed or not, I, of course, look at the technical action of the stock to try and guess if they are on course to succeed. That, tied with my general view of the market dictates my then current position. Right now, very bearish. The history of my position in the holy one is full of reversals, mostly because the stock's action was full of reversals. These reversals kept my few losses to minimum and allowed me to participate in the majority of the upside the stock had. That follows an old market say :Lcut your losses short and let your profits run". That is not a unique approach to VLNC, just recently, I had similar reversals in QLTI, I cut my losses at $60, got back around $50 and sold above $71, then got back in at $68, and in view of the market, I may be out today of QLTI as well in the hope of reentering once more at a lower price. I really do not know if Berg and Shuggart will repeat through Lev their prior successes. I should tell you that hisorically, such repeats are rare, and can point to few examples where such "second comings" did not occur, for instance, Rolwagen killed PMAT, Amdhal killed both Amdhal computers and Trilogy (only very wealthy people lost $200 MM on Trilogy, since it never came public before it failed), and there are many more examples. Come to think of it, I do not recall many examples where the opposite occurred. Zeev

To: gancho who wrote (4012)	8/3/2000 12:03:46 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 30051

Hi gancho: If you’ve been following Zeev’s posts here and on the holy one’s thread he’s been consistent all along on his reads. Don’t follow any fool posts pointing out one side of Zeev’s calls. Zeev is very good at indicating his targets. I remember, but will not go look up all the posts you can do that, when Zeev made his $65 call this year while the stock was in low $30’s. He and I at the same time discussed the run to $40 was on low volume and a false break. Until a major order it should not print $29, a sell signal and not break $26, a major breach and trend reversal. We’ll the stock gapped down from 28ish to 21 one day and that was the day to sell, even @ $21 since it dropped below $15 after that. WE all got caught in that one. The reason I don’t post over there is my negative concern on the company. No new orders in how long? I actually see the $11 support being broken and the stock back in single digits (without a substantial order). Can I be wrong, Yes. Do I make mistakes, Yes. Will the stock first bounce off $11? Yes. I just like to have the risk / reward more in my favor and invest in other stocks. If I posted my concerns on the thread all I would face is grief and aggrevation. I know I didn’t need to listen to the cc, nor have Zeev listen for me. I listen to many calls on stocks I like and invest in. Some are informative others not so informative. For VLNC the only thing you needed to hear on yesterdays call was do they have orders. Well another month has gone by and they are now missing out on the fall production. I make my own investment decisions. Zeev does not make them for me nor should he make them for you. We all do our own dd here. You can always, I repeat always buy a stock on a breakout if there is good fundamental news. You miss the initial run but you also miss a potential loss or just sitting on dead money for months. Tim