Checking in with Gallup:
gallup.com
POLL RELEASES
August 3, 2000
Bush Highly Rated by Americans in Advance of Thursday's Acceptance Speech
Personal character seen as particularly strong
by Lydia Saad
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Governor George W. Bush is not only popular among the Republicans filling the convention hall in Philadelphia this week, but also among the American public at large. A Gallup poll conducted July 25-26, just prior to the start of the GOP convention, found nearly two-thirds of Americans holding a favorable view of the soon-to-be Republican nominee and a similar number sharing the belief that Bush has the leadership qualities it takes to be president. Even prior to the GOP convention build-up, Americans saw the Texas governor as the better of the two major party candidates on a number of presidential characteristics, including management skills, honesty and vision. Democratic contender Al Gore receives nearly the same overall favorable rating from Americans as Bush, but lags behind the Texas governor in perceived leadership strength and on most other presidential qualities tested.
According to the recent Gallup poll, Bush leads Gore in the race for president by 11 points, 50% to 39%, and is doing exceptionally well among white and male voters. Bush seems to have secured the support of a high percentage of conservative voters who make up the backbone of his winning coalition, but could be doing better among political moderates who are currently supporting Gore.
Bush and Gore Battling for Public Confidence on Issues
Bush entered the Republican convention with room for improvement in terms of public opinion of his perceived competency to handle key issues should he become president. While Gallup’s pre-convention poll finds Bush viewed as more capable than Gore on a number of policy issues, Gore runs close to or ahead of Bush on the three issues rated by Americans as most important to their vote this fall: education, the economy and healthcare. The only issue tested on which Bush lags far behind Gore is the environment, which is considered to be a trademark issue for Gore. However, Bush has an equally strong advantage over Gore on the issue of national defense, and enjoys clear advantages on taxes, foreign affairs and foreign trade.
But Bush Dominant on Character
The area in which Bush clearly dominates Gore from the public’s perspective is personal traits and characteristics. Bush leads Gore on all but one personal characteristic tested by Gallup in the new survey, particularly on the presidential qualities of being "a strong and decisive leader," and "can manage the government effectively" where the Texas governor leads Gore by 22 points and 12 points, respectively. Bush leads Gore by seven points for being honest and trustworthy, having a vision for the country’s future, and being someone Americans say they would be proud to have as president. He leads by smaller margins as being someone who "shares your values," "generally agrees with you on issues you care about," and "understands complex issues." Bush and Gore tie on the quality of "cares about the needs of people like you."
Bush Consistently Beating Gore in Trial Heats
The bottom line in this election, of course, is how Americans plan to vote on Election Day. Thus far Bush has earned an impressive track record of leading Gore in every trial heat survey conducted by Gallup since the race was first measured in 1998. Over that period Bush’s lead over Gore in a hypothetical two-way race has ranged from a high of 21 points (in April 1999) to a low of only 1% (in March 2000).
The long-term trend picture shows that Bush was a particularly strong candidate early in the campaign season, with consistently double-digit leads over Gore throughout 1999 and early 2000. Subsequent to the raucous early Republican primary season this year -- in which Bush had an unexpectedly strong challenge from John McCain -- Bush’s lead over Gore has been less formidable, averaging about seven points. As noted, in the most recent survey, with Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader included as potential third-party candidates, Bush leads Gore by 11 points, 50% to 39%.
Fifty-four percent of Americans today say that Bush would make a good president if elected, while 41% say Gore would make a good president – consistent with Bush’s overall lead. While Bush's public image as Texas governor is somewhat less positive today than when it was first measured last fall, a majority of Americans -- 54% -- still say they approve of the way he has handled his job of governor, while only 18% say they disapprove and 28% are unsure.
Positive Personal Rating Has Remained High
Early in 1999, when Gallup first asked Americans to give their opinion of George W. Bush, it was strongly positive, with very few "unfavorable" ratings. As Americans have gotten to know Bush over the past year, an increasing number have been willing to express an opinion of him -- and his unfavorable rating has doubled, from 15% in April 1999 to 31% today. Despite this increase in the number of his detractors, perceptions of Bush remain overwhelmingly positive with 63% of Americans today, compared to 73% last year, saying they view him favorably. Al Gore’s ratings have remained virtually unchanged over the same time span and most recently were found to be 56% favorable, 38% unfavorable, with 6% unsure.
Men and White Voters Are Bush Strongholds
Political observers have noted that the goals of this year’s Republican convention include reaching out to blacks, women and other minorities, as well attempting to attract political moderates and independents to the GOP ticket. These demographic and ideological targets make sense from the standpoint of a candidate and party seeking to expand its base. Support for Bush among men is extraordinarily high, as it has been throughout his candidacy. Bush now leads Gore by 23 points among men, 56% to 33%. By contrast he leads by only two points among women, 46% to 44%, although he has generally been lagging behind Gore among women in recent months.
The contrast in voting patterns is even starker in terms of race. Bush now leads Gore by 23 points among whites, 56% to 33%, but trails Gore by 93% to 0% among blacks.
Bush's effort to project himself as a "compassionate conservative" is at least in part designed to bridge two groups that could prove critical to his success this fall -- moderates and conservatives. Bush has a reliably strong base of support among the large group of Americans who describe themselves as conservative, just as Gore can count on a high rate of support among self-described liberals. The advantage for Bush is that conservatives outnumber liberals in the electorate by a nearly three-to-one margin, 46% to 16%. The battleground for votes is among the remaining 38% of voters who consider themselves politically moderate. Indeed, throughout the race they have proved to be a fickle group. However in Gallup’s most recent survey, Gore leads among this group by 13 points, 50% to 37%.
Although Bush currently enjoys a comfortable lead in the presidential race without the support of a majority of moderates, winning this group or even expanding his numbers here could give him the comfortable margin of victory he is looking for. Going into the Republican convention, Gallup found moderate voters evenly divided in their views about Bush’s politics, with 40% saying he is too conservative and 41% saying he is "about right." However, moderates are similarly split with respect to Gore, with 40% calling him too liberal and 41% saying he is about right.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,035 adults, 18 years and older, conducted July 25-26, 2000. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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