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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (47687)	8/3/2000 11:51:14 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I believe that there are many many other factors at play here.. and I should point out that I tend to take a more macro view because looking at the minutia is too hard for my simple mind. Hiking interest rates has a compounding effect on the market where not only does it slow earnings growth but it also makes fixed rate instruments more attractive. The point of this argument is that there are assets that need investment instruments. This money exists - the question is where to put it to get the best return. If money flows are into the money market (due to higher rates) with long maturities then the market is in a world of hurt. This however hasn't occurred and money is still sitting there waiting to be put to work. The point is - all the economic indicators set aside - there is money that needs to go somewhere. With this in mind it become a simple supply/demand equation wrt to equities. If the demand for equities subsides because cash is going elsewhere or the supply of equities increase due to new IPOs' or second offerings, then the equity market will weaken. So my postulate is that money will continue to flow into the market - even with a 25 basis point hike later this month. After the hike the money will flow freely into the market again - especially if Bush is looking good in the elections. New offerings won't be significant. Valuations will again move higher and so from a macro perspective the market is a buy. The volatility in between is noise so long as you keep the idea of buying low and selling high in mind. For me, trying to call the bottom and the top is just too damn hard. At 3600-3700 this market is a buy.. yes, it's a bigger buy at 3400 but either way it's a buy. Just one persons uneducated opinion. OG

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (47687)	8/3/2000 11:55:51 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

<<Each failed rally only serves to convince investors that a top has been made>> ditto... I'm thinking this mid day rally is only a setup for a "tankage" later this afternoon. I could be wrong since I've been a great rally killer with my trading moves as of a late.....and this could be "the bottom" many keep looking for, myself included. If we don't bottom today or tomorrow...look for another week of selling and get long late next week per Carpino's cycle low call.