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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (56966)	8/3/2000 12:14:13 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116958

Darleen, the growth in this economic cycle has clearly peaked. Wasn't that the message in the March/April 37% decline in the COMP? It takes anywhere from 9 to 15 months before you see the full effect of raising or lowering rates. So, Greenspan is operating to a certain extent in the dark here himself, as he is not sure to what degree the economy will slow. The Public seems to think that Greenspan, the financial mechanic, has this all down to an art and science. That is very far from the truth. Greenspan is using old fashioned methods on a so called new economy to try to slow it down. He is really experimenting here more than most people think. It is really no different in a way from a scientist trying to find a cure for a disease. Gold can only buck the trend in an equity bear market if the dollar heads lower. Natural gas stocks are the best proven long investments in an equity bear market. Gold stocks are very iffy. They rise less than half the time in a bear market ( about 40%). Why is the dollar still rallying here? What does it say about economic growth moving forward in the US in comparison to Asia and Europe? At what point does the dollar follow the COMP lower? One thing is for sure: At some point, the dollar should head lower, much lower. Your guess is as good as mine. But I don't think it is very far off. PS I don't think the EURO is the answer. In a recession, gold will do well and rally, especially with some radical easing by Greenspan.