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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Cuthbertson who wrote (8500)	8/3/2000 2:01:07 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

J., Not to fret, sooner or later, common sense prevails. Even a brain dead analyst like Jon eventually values companies based upon earnings and earnings growth. Re AMAT conference call: Jim will probably advise that the future is rosy as far as the eye can see for AMAT. For the past couple years, he's avoided talking about prospects for other companies. Rather AMAT's good fortune is because they are progressing toward 100% market share. ;^) Ian.

To: John Cuthbertson who wrote (8500)	8/5/2000 9:29:31 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

John, you may be right, but during this earning season, it seems that such pronouncements do not help. Look at CYMI, a great quarter by any measure, and the stock is 30% below the the $52 it reached after the earnings announcement. I think that the problem is not that the "cycle" is over, the problem is that we have reached a peak in the growth rate and the market historicaly punishes the stock at peaks in growth rate, when the anticipation of slower growth rate in the future will be followed with actual decline in shipments. It is a classical case of "when the FA and TA do not jive, believe the FA. When leading companies break the May lows (AMAT, LRCX and KLIC for example), IMHO, it means that the peak for the cycle (in stock prices) has been reached for this cycle (but I said that last May when AMAT broke through the $78/$80 area as well). I still expect a very strong rally in the sector soon (maybe after AMAT announces its result and the market brings it down after that to a new low), but I do not expect to see in the next 12 months prices above this year's highs. Zeev