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To: Mani1 who wrote (3571)	8/3/2000 5:29:49 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 275872

ML:3-mo rolling avg billings for June up 48.1% YoY,Actual billings up 28.1% seq 8/3/00 Investment Highlights: • The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that three-month rolling average billings for the month of June increased by 48.1% YoY. • The YoY increase represents the nineteenth consecutive month that comparisons have been in positive territory after turning negative in March 1998. • June billing growth was the strongest for Asia Pacific for the twelfth month in a row – Asia Pacific grew 53% while chip revenue in Japan grew 51%. The Americas were up by 43% YoY while the European region had sales growth of 48% YoY. • Actual June billings were $20.0 billion, up 58.6% YoY from June ‘99 billings. • Sequentially, 3-month rolling average billings were up by 5.2%, which compares favorably to the average June/May rate of sequential change for 1997-99, which declined at an average of 1.0%. Actual billings were up 28.1% sequentially. • For all of 2000 we are currently forecasting an increase in semiconductor billings of 32.3% YoY to $197 billion. Our 2001 billings forecast is 22.9% YoY, to $242 billion. SIA June 3-month rolling average billings up 48.1% YoY, and up 5.2% sequentially The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that three-month rolling average billings for the month of June increased by 48.1% YoY to $20.0 billion. The YoY increase represents the nineteenth consecutive month that comparisons have been in positive territory after turning negative in March 1998. Sequential increase compares well with 1997-99 average The three-month moving average billings in June were up 5.2% from June. The average for 1997-99 is down 1.0%, to which the June 2000 result compares quite favorably. Actual billing data shows 58.6% YoY growth Although the three-month moving average comparisons are the ones that receive the most attention, a look at the actual billing data is instructive as well. Actual June billings of $20.0 billion were up 58.6% YoY from the June ‘99 actual billing figure of $12.6 billion. DRAM, flash billings lead growth Growth in communications and information appliance end markets continues to be the driving force behind the semiconductor business. Actual analog semiconductor billings growth for June was 46% YoY. Actual non-DRAM/ SRAM memory billings grew by 125% YoY, fueled by a 2.7x YoY expansion in flash memory and EEPROM billings. Actual DRAM billings were up 113% YoY, as commodity prices picked up dramatically in the month. Microprocessor growth improved from last month, to 66% YoY. Average selling prices moving upwards We have speculated that as the semiconductor cycle progresses and the impact of ongoing capacity tightness become more noticeable, selling prices should begin to rise. That is beginning to happen – overall industry ASP was up by 21.4% YoY, the biggest such increase since the end of 1995. We note that although ASP increases have been the strongest in commodity memory, other segments of the industry have shown selling price strength as well. Asia Pacific and Japan strong, U.S. good, Europe growth resumes The notable sources of strength in the three-month rolling average data were Asia Pacific and Japan, with Japan growing 51% and Asia Pacific billings increasing by 53% YoY. The Americas were up by 43% YoY, and European billings continue to grow to 48% YoY. We are forecasting 32.3% growth for 2000 For all of 2000 we are currently forecasting an increase in semiconductor billings of 32.3% YoY to $197 billion and our 2001 billings forecast is 22.9% YoY to $242 billion.