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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (3592)	8/4/2000 1:39:34 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Chuck, I'll concede that the CPU business is not very cyclic, but, to the manufacturer with less than 1/3 the market, it is very cyclic. Imagine if something like FDIV happened to AMD, even a year from now. There is also high technology risk for AMD. For example, we all know that if Pentium 4's turn out to yield to 2 GHz by the end of the year, AMD is totally screwed. In short, the CPU business has always been extremely cyclic for AMD, because there is no room for error when competing with the 800 LB gorilla. Finally, even a "growth recession" of less than 15% YOY growth could cause ASP's to tumble 30% and result in 15% YOY revenue declines. So, I like the fact that CPU's are "only" 70% of AMD, and I would like it even better if they were 60%. Petz

To: Charles R who wrote (3592)	8/4/2000 2:00:58 AM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Charles re:There is no real "cycle" for CPUs. This is an extremely steady growth segment and will remain so for the next 5-10 years. Just think of it - most of the world hasn't used a PC yet. There are two or three companies who can do x86. With a strong product offering and focus, AMD can only gain market share. that is not true at all. Even if we agree on a strong average growth over the nearest future that does not imply that it is non-cyclical. Simple example is us economy which got healthy average growth and will continue to grow yet there are so called "cycles". Regards -Albert