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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (106926)	8/3/2000 6:14:45 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Elmer, I know very little about making this stuff, just what I've absorbed on this thread over the last 4 or so years. I don't have the knowledge to be skeptical on that end. John

To: Elmer who wrote (106926)	8/3/2000 7:43:53 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 186894

Elmer, RE:"I'm the opposite. I think they can sell them but I wonder if they can make them. They have 2 fabs running and they are hoping to produce in 13 weeks only a little more than Intel makes in 1 week from 1 fab (fab12 in Ocotillo Az). This is not what I would expect to see from a company that has a good manufacturing line running. This is what one would see from a company that has problems." I think they can make 3.6 million but there is a good poibility there will not be infrastructure for them. Chipset, motherboard etc...or some major OEMs won't take them all...this could result in an inventory build up... Consider this.... 1. FAB 25s last 3 quarers of Athlon production... Q4 99 - .8M K7 cores Q1 00 - 1.2M Q2 00 - 1.8M Q3 00 - 2.7M Estimated (50%) increase/Q Dresden Q2 00 ? Q3 00 Need .9 million to get to 3.6M K7s SO basically, K7 "dedicated" Dresden only needs .1M more K7s than Q4 99 from Austin... Not to difficult any way you look at it??? Even if Dresden is only 30% ramped on average... Jim

To: Elmer who wrote (106926)	8/3/2000 9:08:13 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

I think they can sell them but I wonder if they can make them. They have 2 fabs running and they are hoping to produce in 13 weeks only a little more than Intel makes in 1 week from 1 fab (fab12 in Ocotillo Az). One of those fabs is not dedicated to only Athlons. The other is not done ramping up (and still won't be at the end of Q3). Also I don't think either is quite as big as fab12. I also have my doubts about 1 million copermines from fab12 per week. That would be 12 million per quarter from one fab. If Intel can do that I don't see why they have had problems meeting demand, or is this one Intel fab so much better then all the others? Tim

To: Elmer who wrote (106926)	8/4/2000 12:38:54 AM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Elmer re: They have 2 fabs running and they are hoping to produce in 13 weeks only a little more than Intel makes in 1 week from 1 fab (fab12 in Ocotillo Az). I am very impressed. AMD's production rate is somewhere around 7mil/q which would make an annual output of the fab 12 at around 365 million chips. Demand must be really high since at that production rate from a single fab and more than one fab going at it intel still can not meet all that demand. WOW Do you have any estimates for this year chip demand? I already figured out from your insight that it is more than a billion I was just wondering how much more Even at mere billion and avg asps at $150 and a gross margin of 62% that would be 93 billion dollars (pre-tax) in operational profits which is completely consistent with last quarter results, I think. WOW Regards -Albert ps pe = 48, shares = 6.7 bil, E(after-tax)=62bil lead to the fair price of $444/share - no wonder you complain that intel is undervalued