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Technology Stocks : Emulex, What Prospects? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hasan syed who wrote (405)	8/3/2000 6:50:17 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 788

I agree that EMLX has been performing very well. I think one of the main reasons the stock hasn't done better in the short term are the "consensus" estimates. If you look at the eps estimates shown here on SI, you will see that they make absolutely no sense. They showed EPS for the last 3 quarters at 61 cents and an estimate for the 4th qtr at 21 cents. Now, according to the way I do math, that would give a FY total of 82 cents for the estimate but they are showing a FY total estimate of 70 cents! OOPS! By the way, the FY total EPS was 86 cents! Now look at their EPS estimate for next year. 93 cents???? I don't think so!! Look at the quarter just turned in. 25 cents. That 93 is a total joke, IMO. Using their 70/93 ratio these estimates expect 32% eps increase year over year. Using this ratio, we get a EPS target for next year around a $1.13. I suspect that true earnings will be substantially higher than this figure. Take a look at the sequential revenue growth for the past 2 years: 14.0 15.7 18.2 20.4 28.8 33.6 36.5 and now 40.8! Pretty solid numbers if you asked me! Great quarter and solid future for this company. I think the stock goes up from here but who knows with the current market environment?? Good luck. Just my opinion!! Michael