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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4024)	8/3/2000 8:29:33 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

RD, when you talk of a top do you mean price or orders? Gottfried [end]

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4024)	8/3/2000 8:33:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Check out the top line for capex estimates, which have not changed simply because one of KLIC's customers pushed out an order because they had inadequate space for the product: geocities.com Front end: 38B to 61B Back end: 15 to 23B Does it still look to you like a top? BK

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4024)	8/3/2000 8:55:32 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 5482

Briefing.com featured KLIC as one of their "story stocks" today. The story can be found at: briefing.com The article in its entirety is printed below. Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) 14 1/4 -7 7/8: "We hope no one overreacts to this news." That was the statement from Kulicke & Soffa CEO, C. Scott Kulicke, after the company informed investors that its financial performance for the current quarter and its first fiscal quarter of 2001 may be negatively impacted by customer order deferrals and push-outs for its 8020 ball bonders due to space constraints and wafer and substrate shortages. Apparently, Mr. Kulicke hasn't been paying close attention to the stock market, because if there is one thing it does well these days, it is that it overreacts to negative news as investors are apt to hear the headlines, place the sell orders, and ask questions later. Already, shares of KLIC are down 35% from yesterday's close, and yet, KLIC acknowledged that demand continues to be very strong for all of its products and that it expects its customers to resume their recent order patterns in the near future. When looking at the latest sales report from the Semiconductor Industry Association, investors may find that hard to believe-- not because chip sales were weak in Q2, but because they were so strong, rising 11% sequentially and 48% yr/yr. The fact that investors have been worried about the sustainability of such strong chip sales, which typically result in increased capital spending, has been no secret as a host of better than expected Q2 earnings reports from the chip and chip equipment makers were met with a rash of profit taking. For its part, KLIC posted record bookings, sales, and net income for its fiscal Q3 on July 20 and its stock dropped 11% that day. Its warning today, coupled with the recent report from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International trade association that the chip equipment book-to-bill ratio fell to 1.26 in June from 1.28 in May, is only feeding fears that the best of times are behind, or will soon be behind, the chip industry. That perception, of course, is a kiss of death for a cyclical industry, and the way these stocks are trading at the moment, the market is giving them a big, French kiss. As for KLIC, one can expect to see EPS estimates lowered in the weeks ahead, but all things considered, we see today's response as an overreaction. Business may be slowing from its torrid pace, but we're not talking negative growth. That said, we would view today's selloff as a buying opportunity, but would expect KLIC to underperform its peers in the months ahead.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com Don W.

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4024)	8/4/2000 9:51:39 AM
From: EACarl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Red Dragon, Agree with the points you made about accelerating growth, plateau phase, etc. BUT........... Due the the fact that the current "fears" are not typical of the semi-cycle, i.e. bottlenecks in production rather than excess capacity, wouldn't you expect that rather than typical bottom of the cycle prices, we would find a higher low? Also, given that we are not looking ahead to negative earnings, but rather still strong but admittedly slower growing earnings, how cheap is too cheap? At this point we have some semi-equip stocks with forward P/E's of 7 to 9. Assuming this is a mid-cycle pause, and not the beginning of the end of the up-cycle, wouldn't you think these prices are cheap?