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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4031)	8/3/2000 10:24:09 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

Ian, thanks for the #. I just listened. Now we have 2 birds in the bush. I'd have preferred 1 bird in hand. :) Gottfried Scott warned against comparing cycles: each has different dynamics.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (4031)	8/4/2000 6:34:43 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

"One that I haven't seen explicitly stated relates to the Billions of $ worth of Front end fab equipment that has been delivered; and that is still being delivered; for which there is no back end capacity yet installed." Hi Ian! You saved me from making exactly the same comment as I was catching up on the 20+ posts from last night! IMHO there is NO WAY the back end equipment cycle is over unless all the 300 mm fabs being constructed now are put in mothballs. This capacity is not expected to come on line for another couple of years and THEN is when the bonders, device handlers and testers will be ordered to handle the much higher quantities of devices being produced. Remember that this is the stock market and it is much more based on emotional perceptions than reality. The REAL answer to whether Jon Joseph, Red Dragon, etc. are correct will probably not be known for another 2-3 years. For now, it may appear they were correct, but I'm betting my money that we are seeing only a blip in the upward advance. As I've said previously, this component supply induced slowdown may actually be good for the industry BECAUSE it will not allow expansion as fast and will hopefully smooth out the demand peak (and valley which we all know will eventually come!) Bookmark this period of panic and remember to check back in a few years.