Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (57763)	8/3/2000 10:53:15 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

They may be getting ready to pull the DJIA up along with the breakouts in DJUA and DJTA.

To: bobby beara who wrote (57763)	8/4/2000 12:17:44 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

AUG 3 INDEX UPDATE - CAUTION FLAG!!! --------------------- SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL READINGS: DOW - just entered overbought region SPX - upper midrange OEX - upper midrange NAZ - midrange NDX - midrange VIX - 23.81, lower midrange A few weeks ago I came out with a caution flag since I was getting an anomoly in my short-term technicals. Although the market did break to the upside a little, the recent much larger declined followed. I also raised the caution flag once the BEARISH WEDGES broke to the downside. Today's CAUTION FLAG is based on a pattern that I noticed and is somewhat discussed but not often. I cannot say that my research is statistically viable, since I didnt have enough data, but it does have merit. The pattern is a FLAT PERIOD followed by an upside breakout, then followed by a decline, and the decline could be very large. Of course this is not 100%, but does merit the CAUTION FLAG. This pattern has occured often in various sizes, and one of them we all remember clearly. Back in the SPRING of 1998 we had a relatively flat period then in JULY a strong runup to a HIGHER HIGH, then the big sell off of 1998. Thats the large scale version. This large version of this pattern could be called a "3 PEAKS and DOMED HOUSE" There are quite a few examples of this pattern on a smaller scale. During the selloff of 1998, we had 3 distinct flat periods which I had called STAIRSTEPS. Towards the end of the STAIRSTEP there was a quick spurt to the upside which broke the pattern slightly to the upside, before the decline which were large. Recently, we had 2 examples of this pattern with both occuring in the JUNE/JULY timeframe on the NDX. From early JUNE until mid JUNE the NDX was quite flat, then there was a quick move to the upside then a selloff. That was followed immediately by the same pattern, but the selloff the 2nd time was quite large which was the recent decline. OK, heres the CAUTION FLAG!!!! - Take a look at the intraday highs of the last 4 trading days in the NDX and NAZ. You will notice that the intraday highs of each of the past 4 trading days were very close, which is giving the appearance of a STAIRSTEP(rectangle). My prediction is that within 1-2 weeks there should be a spurt to the upside, then the decline which has a good chance of being large. This spurt to the upside could come as soon as tomorrow. So to repeat the PATTERN: RELATIVE FLATNESS, followed by a SPURT TO THE UPSIDE, FOLLOWED by a SELLOFF which could be very large.