To: pass pass who wrote (120 ) 8/6/2000 8:13:40 AM From: puborectalis Respond to of 376 The Coming Week in Europe: Britain Awaits Fiber-Optic Darling's Report By Nick Watson Senior European Correspondent 8/6/00 12:40 AM ET LONDON -- In Britain next week, earnings results from Bookham Technology (BKHM:Nasdaq ADR - news) and QXL.com (QXLC:Nasadq ADR - news) -- two companies that belong to the so-called "New Economy" -- are expected to illustrate well the idea that a gold rush tends not to enrich those who dig the gold from the ground, but the companies that build the equipment to dig it out. Bookham, one of the new darlings of the British technology sector, will announce its second-quarter results on Wednesday. Analysts expect Bookham's revenues to increase to £4.2 million from £2.5 million the previous quarter and losses before interest and tax to fall to £5.7 million from £8.9 million. The excitement about Bookham centers on its proprietary manufacturing technology for silicon-based integrated optical circuits, which generate, detect, route and control light signals in fiber-optic telecommunications networks. This process, known as ASOC, replaces the conventional labor-intensive approach to manufacturing optical components with standard high-volume semiconductor production methods. Dr. Andrew Rickman, the founder and chief executive of Bookham, told TSC at an investors conference in London last week that when Bookham was founded 12 years ago "the use of silicon in optical chips looked physically impossible, but our technology is a poke in the eye of those who said it was not possible." Bookham finds itself in a market with enormous potential. The consulting group Ryan Hankin Kent forecasts that the compound annual growth rate for fiber-optic components will be 41% through to 2003, when it should reach $21.3 billion, compared with the $5.5 billion it was worth in 1999. Bookham's list of clients includes Nortel Networks and Lucent Technologies. Rickman says investing in Bookham is "not for the faint-hearted," since the company has large upfront capital requirements. In the first quarter, Bookham spent £3.4 million on capital equipment. Yet there appears to be no shortage of investors who are prepared to buy into the story. The stock closed Friday at £39.69, up 297% since the company listed in April, and is trading at about 175 times forecast 2000 sales. The experience of the U.K. Internet auction site QXL.com -- which will release its fiscal first-quarter results ended June 30 on Thursday -- couldn't be more different. At the investors' conference, a figure slipped into the lunchroom and stood at the back listening intently while Meg Whitman, CEO of eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq - news) was speaking. The man with the slightly worried expression was Jim Rose, the CEO of QXL. And worried he should be. In the fiscal year ended March 31, revenue increased 170% to £6.9 million, compared with £2.5 million the previous fiscal year. However, the operating loss ballooned to £32.8 million from £2.1 million. QXL's shares have fallen 994% since their high in March to close Friday at 68 pence. Much of that can be blamed on the daft 333 1/3 price-target slapped on the company in April by SG Cowen, which saw the shares rise 132% in one day. Yet investors are still concerned about QXL's expensive and risky strategy of buying its way into Europe through the acquisitions of Germany's Ricardo and Scandinavia's Bidlet. "QXL's strategy is fundamentally different to that of eBay," explains Derek Brown, analyst at Robertson Stephens. "While eBay has identified the high-growth markets and then established itself in these, QXL has chosen to expand via large acquisitions." As a result "QXL has got enormous complications because of different cultures [between the companies] and trying to establish a cohesive brand," Brown says. Brown has a buy recommendation on QXL. (Robertson has had an investment banking relationship with QXL.) In an interview with TheStreet.co.uk on Friday, Rose said he feels that the European market is big enough for two players, though definitely not three. On a merger with eBay? "Who knows if that is going to happen," says Rose. Who knows, indeed, but no doubt some QXL investors may be hoping it will.