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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (626)	8/4/2000 4:49:07 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10065

Some weekend reading on the FED - & rate increases: cnnfn.cnn.com

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (626)	8/7/2000 5:00:55 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

The FED & Liquidity...The markets are getting thirsty By Dr. Irwin Kellner, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:42 PM ET Aug 7, 2000 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- While investors are obsessing over whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month, they may be missing something even more important -- a surreptitious withdrawal of liquidity from the system by the central bank. In the final analysis, growth in the supply of money and credit has as much to do with the economy's ability to grow as the level of interest rates -- if not more. It certainly has a lot to do with how much money is available to go into the stock market. Toward the end of last year, the Fed pumped up the money supply well above seasonal needs, fearing Y2K-related withdrawals at the nation's banks. The money supply M-3 expanded by an annual rate of 11 percent -- one-third faster than gross domestic product growth during the fourth quarter. This reflected an increase in the monetary base of 16.3 percent, year-over-year. Not surprisingly, the stock market ended the year on a high note; the Dow Jones Industrials jumped 25 percent in 1999, while the Standard & Poors 500 rose almost 20 percent. Markets quickly feel effect of monetary strings After New Year's, when it became clear that everything was copasetic, the Fed began to withdraw this excess liquidity and in short order, the markets began to feel the effects. The Dow Jones Industrials peaked on Jan. 14; the Nasdaq Composite on March 24. If the monetary base is any guide, don't expect stocks to retest these highs anytime soon. In the past four months, the base has been flat -- and well below January's levels. Year-over-year, the monetary base is now up less than 7 percent. The last time it grew this slowly the Nasdaq was well below 2000. All of this argues for keeping your eye on the right target, if you want to be a successful investor. What Alan Greenspan says is important -- up to a point. Remember, he's the one who says he has "learned to mumble with great coherence," when it comes to discussing monetary policy. I prefer to put it another way. Watch what they do -- not what they say. cbs.marketwatch.com

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (626)	8/8/2000 8:43:57 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Respond to of 10065

Some Productivity headlines - could turn market futures positive: 08:34 10-YEAR TREASURY PARES LOSSES AFTER FRIENDLY PRODUCTIVITY REPORT; UP 2/32 AT 5.94% 08:31 Q2 NONFARM BUSINESS PRODUCTIVITY UP 5.3% VS. 4.3% EXPECTED 08:31 Q2 UNIT LABOR COSTS DOWN 0.1% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED GAIN 08:31 PRODUCTIVITY UP 5.1% IN PAST 4 QUARTERS, LARGEST GAIN SINCE 1991 08:31 UNIT LABOR COSTS DOWN 0.4% IN PAST 4 QUARTERS, FIRST DECLINE SINCE 1984 08:31 PRODUCTIVITY GROWING AT 3 TIMES AVERAGE OF 1970S, 1980S 08:31 BIG GAIN IN PRODUCTIVITY EXPECTED, BUT SHOULD REASSURE MARKETS ABOUT NO RATE HIKE 08:31 Q1 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED LOWER TO 1.9%, Q4 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED HIGHER TO www2.marketwatch.com - Some details/comments from Bloomberg: bloomberg.com - The Dismal-guys view/analysis should appear (shortly) at the link below: dismalscience.com

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (626)	8/9/2000 5:55:28 PM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

This economy does look a little "beige". O.K., I concede (for now)<G> FOMC should be on hold for a rate hike till after the election.... Headlines: 14:02 FED BEIGE BOOK REVEALS WIDESPREAD MODERATION IN ECONOMY DURING JUNE-JULY 14:02 FED REPORTS CONSUMER SPENDING, MANUFACTURING, CONSTRUCTION ALL SOFTER 14:02 FED SAYS "EASING DEMAND APPEARS TO BE RESTRAINING PRICE INCREASES" 14:02 FED SAYS LABOR MARKETS REMAIN TIGHT, WITH SHORTAGE OF WORKERS STILL TROUBLESOME 14:02 FED: MANY DISTRICTS REPORTED WAGE, BENEFIT COST INCREASES 14:02 FED: COMPETITION LARGELY KEEPING WHOLESALE PRICE INCREASES FROM BEING PASSED ON 14:02 FED: LOAN DEMAND REMAINED STRONG OR SOLID IN MOST DISTRICTS - Don't like these oil headlines however...... <BG> 13:56 SEPT. CRUDE GAINS 1.26 CENTS TO $30.38 AMID DROP IN WEEKLY API SUPPLY DATA 13:56 SEPT. GASOLINE UP 1.72 TO 88 CENTS/GAL. AFTER API, ENERGY DEPT. POST FALL IN STKS 13:56 SEPT. HEATING OIL UP 3.87 CENTS 83.70 CENTS/GAL. LIFTED BY WINTER TIGHT SUPPLIES - BEIGE Book FOMC Summary: bog.frb.fed.us