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To: Arthur Schenker who wrote (5441)	8/4/2000 7:45:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 6020

The problem with rules of thumb is that they change as the story changes. When market is good, we get diversification premium, when bad, we get conglomerate/holding company discount. When folks want to find a reason to buy, they will. When they no longer want, a company as large as Philip Morris can enable a gain of 100% within 12 months, and folks still see risk at 5x earnings. 9984 is undervalued now, but it will still go down more when others less, go down less when others stay even, stay even when others rise. My approach to 9984 was based on fundamentals when 9984 was below Y30k pre split, on comparatives when 9984 was below Y60k, then on frenzy value (the march of postal savings) when 9984 was above 80k. I believe stocks can be timed, and it is our job to time, but my timing was a bit off (in aggregate, about two weeks off). Now my approach to 9984 and the market is "fuel up, invisibility and deflector shield on max, jettison all non-essentials, look for opportunistic targets, fire, and run away at first sign of trouble". I think it is neat that we got so many different types from different countries on this thread.