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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (57785)	8/4/2000 4:15:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

from today's WSJ article on employment report: "If you consider we've now created less than 200,000 jobs a month for about six months, one thing you can clearly say is that pressure in the job market isn't what it used to be," said Carl Tannenbaum, an economist with ABN Amro North America Inc. in Chicago. My guesses: 1. the Fed is done, for this year and next. The economy is slowing, unemployment has hit a bottom. 2. there will be no market crash. At worst, we will continue the volatile sideways pattern of the last 6 months. At best, we may see a repeat of the tech-stock buying panic of 9/99-1/00. 3. to understand the market, you must understand that there are two entirely disconnected markets: value/oldeconomy/modestgrowth and NewEconomy/growth/highPE. 4. the bear market in value stocks, which began in 4/98, is bottoming. We may scrape along this bottom for the rest of this year, or may go up. It is finally safe to buy value. But it is still a stock-pickers market: in order to make money, you have to buy the industry leaders, who can maintain margins in the face of continuing tight labor market. 5. the uncertainty and volatility in growth stocks will continue for a while. At some point (sometime in 2000), it will end, and valuations for whatever is "hot" will again reach absurd levels. 6. my guess for the "hot" sectors: telecom equipment, semis that make chips for them, biotech.