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To: kash johal who wrote (3691)	8/4/2000 4:01:12 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash re <<If AMAT even sounds cautious - they will likely tank the sox.>> There is not a question in my mind that AMAT WILL give a cautious forecast for the second half. The back end has completely slowed down. COHU the number one in the world in handlers reported a 17% decrease in orders quarter over quarter. KLIC the number one in bonders also saying things are slowing down. You may know that there is a long argument regarding the back end equipment makers Vs. the front end, if there is a "lag time" between the two and that sort of stuff. The current bullish argument is that capacity constrained in the front end is delaying orders for the back end. We'll have to see. Mani

To: kash johal who wrote (3691)	8/4/2000 4:02:12 PM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

I am really desperate. I feel like in October last year. Shell I sell to save what is still left or hope for better times?

To: kash johal who wrote (3691)	8/4/2000 4:04:51 PM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, re Cisco and AMAT, how about Dell? Those three are next Tues, Wed, Thurs, BTW, as above. Here's a Merrill Lynch prediction for Cisco. If we get this, should be OK, at least as far as Cisco goes. Courtesy Lynn of Cisco thread. Here are the highlights from ML's research comment titled, "Cisco Systems: A Tech Bellwether," by Michael E. Ching, First Vice President, and Seth Weber, Vice President Reason for Report: 4Q Preview/Company Update 12 Month Price Objective: $84 Investment Opinion: B-1-1-9 [9 = no dividend] Investment Highlights: Cisco is scheduled to report 4Q results after the close on August 8. We are looking for revenues of $5.475 billion, up 54% over 4Q99 and +11% sequentially. EPS of $0.15 are projected to rise 49% y/y. We believe that as a bellwether stock, Cisco deserves to trade at a premium valuation. Our $84 price objective is 105x our CY01 EPS estimate of $0.80, or 3x Cisco’s estimated 5-year EPS growth rate of 35%. We reiterate our intermediate and long-term Buy ratings. Fundamental Highlights: We estimate that about 45% of Cisco’s revenues currently come from Enterprise customers, with the faster growing Service Provider segment representing about 40% of revenues. Looking ahead, we expect Service Providers to represent an increasingly important part of Cisco’s growth. As indicated in our June 26 Data Networking report, Market Share/Trends: Review & Outlook, we believe Cisco is gaining share in the networking equipment market. We estimate Cisco had 43% share in the March 2000 quarter, up from 40% in the December quarter and 39% in the year ago period. Lynn

To: kash johal who wrote (3691)	8/4/2000 9:05:05 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash, If cisco or AMAT miss AMD and most likely Intel will likely run into 50's. If Cisco does well, this will be viewed as sign that the economy is heating up, and the market will tank. If Cisco does poorly, this will be viewed as a sign is slowing down, and the market will tank. If AG announces no rate hikes, this will be viewed as a sign of recession, and the market will tank. If AG announces rate hikes, this will cause panic, and make the market tank. If Bush is elected, this will cause concern that the Republicans will run up the deficit, and the market will tank. If Gore is elected, this will cause concern about gridlock, and the market will tank. Conclusion: The market is schizo, and the bulk of investors need to be put out of their investment misery. Scumbria