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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (31294)	8/5/2000 8:21:28 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (14) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . . MARKET ALERT [NAZ]. . . . . . Kevin, the tides have certainly turned since the unemployment number. We need to watch carefully to determine the extent. I think that traders may be sensing the "home stretch" on the interest rate worries. There is only the CPI and PPI before the FOMC. Those two numbers have been mostly in line and are not expected to show runaway inflation. . . but rather further support a slowing economy. So the feeling is "the coast is clear". We knew that on higher unemployment numbers we would see a bounce. But we thought the bounce would eventually be caught up in the downward drift of the Summer Doldrums. . .on low volume. However, even though yesterday showed little change in the Naz or Dow averages [the NDX was actually down for the day]. . .the big news was the strong finish on the financials. If we see follow through on the financials, we could have the beginnings of a rally a few weeks earlier than we expected. How Can It Be Early? We must always remember that the players in the stock market are FAR smarter than they were even just a few years ago. This explains why market moves are several weeks ahead of the prior year. Two years ago, we might have waited until the day before the FOMC meeting for early indication and for some advanced momentum. But today, with all the intelligent eyes on fantastic charts and other indicators, and the ever elusive 'competitive edge' every trader desires. . . there is a regularly occurring anticipation move. We've all felt it, charted it and discussed it. . . since this thread started. What started as a few days lead time has evolved into a few weeks. . .or more. So while I predicted a major rally off the August FOMC meeting. . .back in June. . . I did not calculate the "Anticipated Rally Surge Effect", <VBG>, which we will refer to as ARSE! So the question of the day is this: Was yesterday the start of the first leg up in the "No More Rate Hike" rally? The answer is "possibly" . . .[if so, it caught us by surprise]. . . we need more indication from Monday to get a better sense for this. This could explain why yesterday morning I felt the 'urge' to buy the Early Bouncers. . . so I made an announcement as such. I felt as though at this stage in the game, we needed to play the Early Bouncers on the swing, so that we would be holding them in case of a rush to the best stocks in early anticipation of the FOMC meeting. . . . Kevin, in your TA reports yesterday, you noticed the MACD. . .many of us watched the Naz resistance level turn into support. Small as it was, yesterday's rally was quite broad. The advance/decline line is still in an improving trend . . . and we are talking about the best looking chart in several years. I believe that Monday will be critical to calling this market. I wish they would just hold the FOMC meeting early and squash all this market anxiety. Until then, every trader is waiting on Alan Greenspin to say those 4 magical and political words that will give this market a swift kick in the ARSE. Rande Is