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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (36274)	8/4/2000 7:18:26 PM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 70976

As has been explained on this thread many times, an accelerating b2b ratio ain't the whole story, not by a long shot. As to Brian's concerns about why the investing world does not "get it" right now, I believe it is just another example of the lemming syndrome. If you get out and do your research on AMAT, INTC, AMD, etc., there are just no meaningful signs of slowing right now. Rather, virtually every CEO or CFO is quoted as saying demand is high and holding if not growing. Why, then, will investors listen to one goofy analyst rather than the bosses of the very firms which are manufacturing or meeting the demand? Because they can't do their own research and think for themselves; most don't think they can do it, or are afraid to put their money as risk by trying. Plus, whichever analyst is first to call the "real" downturn in the chip cycle gets a big star on his resume and the ability to brag for five years. So, like dragsters revving at the starting line, they can't wait to hit the line with that prediction. And, its o.k. to be too early...just don't be too late!!! What a business! For a little peace of mind go back and read the AMAT earnings release and conference call comments from last quarter. Wow. What has changed in the last three months? Well, new orders are in. Intel has committed to a few billion of capital improvements, as have others. The stock price is off from 82 to 67. Looks like a buy to me. Message 13685257 I bought some Aug.75 calls today and already have Oct. 80s. I expect to book a gain, hopefully a healthy one when the "real world" returns next Wednesday.