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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36278)	8/4/2000 8:30:55 PM
From: Joseph Beltran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

My head is spinning from reading all these posts as to whether this sector has reached a peak (or not)... I don't think anal-ist out there has any more visibility than any credible ceo in the business. Personally, I would rather rely on the forecasts of Mr. Morgan than anyone else. As far as I can tell what Mr. Morgan says next week will dictate the direction of this sector near term. I have placed my bets -by staying long on AMAT, BRKS and ASYT during this downturn, despite amassing some substantial (unrealized) capital gains. I hope I am right with my gut feelings on this issue. regards

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36278)	8/4/2000 9:12:41 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, I believe little is known about when the peak will be and what total spending we will see. Using current projections for front-end equipment of 61B in '02 and assuming AMAT only their net maintain of 21%, but does not grow net margins, we can get the following EPS. This also assumes 810 Million shares outstanding. geocities.com If AMAT maintains their approximately 33% share of the front-end market, '02 EPS comes out to $5.24. Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 40%, we get '02 EPS of $6.34.(Revs of $24B!) Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 50% as some execs said was their goal, '02 EPS turns out to be $7.93. These are VERY simplistic guesstimates, but doing them shows your EPS estimate is close to the low end. Are you assuming they will not increase market share as they hope? If so, what are your reasons? TIA, Brian

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (36278)	8/4/2000 9:13:47 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Cary, I believe little is known about when the peak will be and what total spending we will see. Using current projections for front-end equipment of 61B in '02 and assuming AMAT only maintains their net margin of 21%, and does not grow them, we can get the following EPS. This also assumes 810 Million shares outstanding. geocities.com If AMAT maintains their approximately 33% share of the front-end market, '02 EPS comes out to $5.24. Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 40%, we get '02 EPS of $6.34.(Revs of $24B!) Should AMAT increase their overall market share to 50% as some execs said was their goal, '02 EPS turns out to be $7.93. These are VERY simplistic guesstimates, but doing them shows your EPS estimate is close to the low end. Are you assuming they will not increase market share as they hope? If so, what are your reasons? TIA, Brian