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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: freeus who wrote (29456)	8/5/2000 11:52:10 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Freeus, You are our wandering, lost soul who can be found, but you've got to use the mirror to find her. :) This is THE most important thing I've ever written to you. Throw this in the trash can or take it to heart, but for me it's the most important exchange we've had. I'll apologize in advance if this post appears blunt, but I'll risk being blunt with the hope that being so enhances the clarity and sense of focus you and others in your situation (there are many like you!) need. I guess I don't have any direction in my mind or heart either. And most of all, I'm afraid. Not a good combination. That's natural. Lacking the direction in your mind, your emotions wander too. That combination will always breed discomfort, not comfort. Before you can invest successfully, you've simply got to determine a course in your mind. Being firmly fixed on that course, your heart will then enjoy the comfort and relief. For a brief moment, forget about investing. Instead, focus on the issue that you're lacking direction. It's critically important that you determine your sense of direction with some highly focused goals. Goal #1: Stop thinking about the date you want to quit work. Instead, determine the criteria that will make you feel comfortable quitting. Write them on a piece of paper or in a text file. Periodically review the criteria. (When you've achieved your criteria, quit working. Until then, be creative and productive at your job. Add value and a sense of purpose to those who interact with you. And be happy about all of that!) Goal #2: Determine what appears risky to you and what appears safe. Again, write a list of factors. (Example: Whereas volatility is not a symptom of risk for me, it appears that it probably is for you.) Determine your tolerance for that risk. Your perception of risk may change over time, but base your determination on your current thinking about risk. Goal #3: Now that you've learned that you (and no one) can reliably predict the short-term future of any stock, STOP TRYING! By avoiding the short-term machinations of the market and a stock, you have a much, much better chance of increasing your net worth to the point that one day you will be able to quit working. Until you come to accept that, you probably will never be able to quit work short of being unusually lucky enough to have a financial windfall separate from investments. Goal #4: Stop looking over your shoulder at the big fish that got away. (Do ya like that mixed metaphor?! :) We've all lost 'em. In the big scheme of things, they simply don't matter all that much when they are part of a diversified portfolio. I'm so good at having let the big fish get away that I know from personal experience that achieving Goal #4 might be the key to your being able to enjoy having achieved the other three. I also know from personal experience that letting the big fish get away doesn't mean you can't increase your net worth exponentially over time. Hope this helps. There aren't any details, but until you focus on the big-picture stuff, the details are useless. And if it helps you to relate to the stuff above, be aware that you and I are the same age. My very best to you! --Mike Buckley

To: freeus who wrote (29456)	8/5/2000 12:38:20 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

>> My problem is I no longer have any direction in my portfolio. I don't really believe in ANY "story" anymore plus stock prices do not seem to be related to company excellence at the present time. I have sympathy for your pain, freeus, but you have a problem that only time can cure. Check your calendar. It's AUGUST and you are a MOMO! That's like being a golf nut in mid winter in Alaska. Enjoy your summer holiday and stop fretting over the market and your declining portfolio. Based on your very nature, every move you try to make this time of the year will just damage you further. I predict you'll be penning poems of joy in December <gg>. uf

To: freeus who wrote (29456)	8/9/2000 8:18:58 PM
From: StockHawk	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

>>My problem is I no longer have any direction in my portfolio...And most of all, I'm afraid.<< Hello freeus, I have been away for a few days and I am just catching up with the thread. You have already received two responses to your post, but I wanted to add a few words also. I remember some years ago reading a comment on the market that went like this: If you have any weaknesses, the market will find them. The market has not been easy this year, and for people who react to it emotionally it has been brutal. And if you invest when fearful, you are playing against a stacked deck. Only you can find direction for yourself, but perhaps it will help you if you analyze what has gone wrong this year. There are two way to lose money: 1. Select the wrong stocks 2. Buy and sell at the wrong time. The first thing you should do is determine which has been the larger factor. If it is item #1 the next logical question is: what is the potential that the stocks will come back. The answer is likely very different for say Dr. Koop than it might be for Qualcomm or Sandisk. If you have invested in the primary stocks discussed here the chances are very good that time will heal this wound. Staying the course is prudent. Nothing is worse than bailing out at a big loss and then watching a significant recovery. On the other hand, if your losers are junk stocks they may never recover. But perhaps your problem is in the second category. Buying and selling at the wrong time is a phenomenon whose occurrence is more likely the more one trades. This is one area where practice does not make perfect. I hope you will not think me an ass for quoting myself, but that is exactly what I am about to do. On May 26 I responded to the heartfelt words of someone else's with this: >>We all have many choices to make in managing our investments - what to buy, when to buy it, how much to diversify and how long to hold. If you really want to learn whether you yourself can beat LTB&H here is a test: Take your real portfolio this weekend and create a private portfolio for yourself here on SI. Make everything exactly the same. Then go ahead and manage your investments using whatever tools you wish - TA, FA, options, etc. But, do not touch the SI portfolio, just leave it as a pure buy and hold model. Then you can use it as a yard stick. See if you can beat it for a month, a year, five years. Then you will have your answer.<< Perhaps you should try this exercise. Pull out your brokerage statement from a time when you were most pleased with your portfolio. Perhaps 1/1/00. Then take the holdings on that statement and update the value with today's prices. Then compare what you would have now, if you had done nothing, with what you actually have today. If you have more today than you would have if you had done nothing, consider the taxes and all the time you spend making the changes you made. Was it worth it? If, on the other hand, you have less today than if you had left things alone, then you will know that you are trading too often, wasting valuable time, and impeding your own progress. And as I have said before, giving advice is so much easier than taking it. StockHawk