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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13612)	8/5/2000 1:07:51 PM
From: The Prophet	Respond to of 60323

I knew I wouldn't be able to get that $10 billion past you :) In any event, by any reasonable metric, SNDK is substantially undervalued based on the empirical evidence, even if 600 is a little bit of an exaggeration.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13612)	8/5/2000 9:09:39 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Respond to of 60323

Flash memory is already cheap enough for many portable computing applications. It is not a question of being priced as low as a hard disk but a question of convenience, reliability, and low battery drain. A CF with 256 mb capacity would easily cover the average needs of even sophisticated users, particularly when the CF is easy to remove and insert in another computer. How about a PDA weighing less than a pound, powered by 4 AA size rechargeable cells, with two flash cards, one for the system and essential application software, and the other for the user files, with wireless capability? If the package can sell for under $1500, it is going to be very popular. Art

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13612)	8/6/2000 2:57:30 PM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

"When flash is twice as good at half the price, or 15 Gb for about $100" Zeev, I think it is important to remember that flash is better suited for a mobile environment with power consumption being a crucial factor as handhelds are given more and more tasks to accomplish. Most applications place power constraints on the design engineers. 3G wireless, color LCD screens, Bluetooth, GPS capability (which is reportedly to be required in the next generation or two of digital handsets),... all add to the mix. Flash has an advantage over rotating discs. Power consumption, scalability and ruggedness are all features that rotating disks will have difficulty matching. Thus, there will be a premium for these features. To imply that 15 gigs of storage at $100 is a magical breakpoint is a bit overstated. You would be hard pressed to find a generic PC hard drive for this cost. The ideal capacity for a given handheld device depends wholly on the application afforded the user. Palm Pilot users have done well with 2 or 4 or 8 MB only. Digital cameras do well currently with 32 MB or above. Many Pocket PC devices offer 32 MB of on-board storage/computational RAM. I have difficulty imagining a 15 gig mass storage device on a handheld platform. Indeed, digital photography is perhaps the most demanding in this regard with 500KB+ files being created at the blink of a shutter. 15 gigs is like hunting a canary with an elephant gun. As far as competing standards I believe that alternate flash form factors are bigger threats to SNDK. FOr example, SmartMedia is one reason why CF is not a universal standard right now. Newer competitors may be flash "thumb drives" that protrude from a USB port on the camera and then are plugged into the USB port on a PC. Embedded mass storage with a wired or wireless connection may also be an option. For reasons I have already explained I see SNDK will benefit in several ways... 1) They will be a premier source of ultra-high density for mass storage with a high barrier to entry for competitors because of: a) the complexity of the engineering, b) the need for a strong fabless network (augmented with a dedicated, owned fab), c) the SanDisk IP covering fundamental aspects of flash design. 2) Competitors will need to shift OEM's from a relatively inexpensive design model (empty slots) to a more bothersome embedded model (component shortage) with added costs (added components) at the retail checkout line. SanDisk has excellent, longstanding relationships with many prominent OEM's and are well positioned to offer alternatives to removable flash cards (should this be required) or even dissuade OEM's from migrating to a new storage paradigm. And as more and more people continue purchasing removable flash cards there will be lesser and lesser incentives to seek alternative solutions. All IMHO and without external influences or financial reward. Ausdauer