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Technology Stocks : PROGRAMMER'S PARADISE (PROG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2221)	8/5/2000 6:44:11 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2383

Zeev, remember that goodwill amortization is $.065 of the loss, so only $.16 is a cash loss. Even if the loss continued at that rate they would only lose $.60 in cash in a year. Here are some of the changes I estimate will happen: 1. Interest income- will increase $100k per quarter, or $.02 per share 2. Sales last year would have been $81 million instead of $244 million. I am sales of $21 million for this quarter and $23 million for Q4. (Sales should fall about 67%). 3. Sales will no longer be as seasonal. Sales were seasonal primarily because of slow Q3 sales in Europe followed by strong Q4 sales. 4. Gross Margin last year would have been $11.2 million instead of $26 million. (Gross Margin should fall about 57%). 5. If they can reduce SGA by $3.6 million a quarter (about 59%) by eliminating 2/3 of the sales, they will have more earnings than before. 6. They sold Europe right before the typically slow European 3rd quarter, so this year the 3rd quarter should be better than usual. 7. The amortization of goodwill was related to the European acquisitions, so I would expect it to be written off this quarter, and no more goodwill expense after that. 8. I project that they will have a profit from continuing operations this quarter of about $.02-.03/share, and a bit more in Q4, probably $.05. 9. I would expect them to sell the domestic operations next, frankly, and I would think they could get at least $15 million for those. We shall see, Carl