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Biotech / Medical : ONXX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Kern who wrote (510)8/5/2000 1:51:18 PM
From: Charles Tutt  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 810
 
I don't consider myself an "altruistic investor;" the position I have in ONXX is purely for selfish reasons. I just think their science has a nonzero (but perhaps/probably small -- who knows?) chance of eventually providing a cure for certain cancers, and that such a thing could be worth quite a bit more than the (relatively rather small) market capitalization of the stock. It's really that simple. BTW, I'm not in any hurry, either.

ONXX has been up and down while I've held it, and probably will be again. Day traders don't really affect my perceptions or my strategy, which is long-term buy and hold.

I suppose if by some miracle it hit 200 I'd be gone, but otherwise my timeframe is years.

JMHO.



To: Paul Kern who wrote (510)8/5/2000 2:46:42 PM
From: Elmer  Respond to of 810
 
Hi Paul,
<warm fuzzies> I love it. I hope you get a payday out of this both because you are smart and have good humor.

One reason I continue to like it and will hold is that "story stocks" tend to run in this market. I mentioned Human Genome. I've been a believer (and an investor) in that story since it traded at $7/share (split adjusted). You could make many of the same arguments about lack of product, etc. with that stock. But it has a market cap that is about 35 times ONXX. The reason, as you mentioned, is in part Wall Street coverage, which ONXX won't get as long as its stock languishes. If its stock appreciates and they do a secondary offering, the Wall Street crowd will start coverage with "venture buy" ratings and send junior analysts out to write three page reports that are less than informative.

Additionally, gene therapy is still the Rodney Dangerfield of biotech. It has only had a couple of successes (bubble boys) and a major failure were it killed one patient (that got much more publicity than its success). Gene therapy companies, like VICAL, have been dead money for years. That in part is the appeal for me of ONXX. It may not work out, and I may lose some money, but if it works, the returns will be outsized because the current price reflects great skepticism.

I sat with dead money in Human Genome for about three years and then, last year it started to run. So, that's how this may work as well. And one thing working in your favor is that these stocks often take lots of time to work out and most investors won't wait or sell after a minor gain. I've done it myself. In previous posts, I mentioned leaving 14 times on the table on IDEC Pharmaceuticals. Did the same on Medimmune. Left 4 times on the table in Vertex Pharmaceutical this year alone. You would think I would learn.

I hope you have a good weekend.
David