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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4076)8/5/2000 6:47:33 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Respond to of 5482
 
By studying the table in the previous post, several points can be made. I will try to make a few of them.

1. The earnings estimates for the group have continued to rise in a monotonic manner ever since the recovery began in October of 1998. In this case, over the last 3 week period, the percentage increase for "this year" and "next year" earnings are 3.1 and 4.2 respectively. This performance is fairly typical compared to previous 3 week measuring periods.

2. The next year PE values have been beaten down to a ridiculously low value. These values are approaching those held by "value" stocks, not "growth" stocks.

3. Look at KLIC in the table. Over the last 3 weeks, the estimates have been raised 7 and 10 cents per share. I understand that some revisions have been put forth in the last day or 2, but the decrease in estimates so far have been relatively small compared to the total value of the estimate.

4. Look at ASYT in the table. It has one of the highest changes in estimates at 27 and 35 cents respectively. Nevertheless, it had an 18 percent loss in share value last week. Over the last 3 week period it has lost 45 percent in share value. It is now selling for a next yr PE of 8!!

I could go on with more comparisons, but others can make the same observations for your particular stock of interest.

Don W.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4076)8/5/2000 10:42:26 PM
From: Will Lyons  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5482
 
Nice work Donald!

Are the earnings for the calendar year or ?
Big difference between those that end 2000 this
Septemmber, ie KLIC, and others that end the
year next March
WL



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4076)8/7/2000 1:15:05 AM
From: EACarl  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5482
 
Nice table as always Don.
Interesting to note that three of the top four companies
(as sorted by next years P/E) are back-end companies.

As far as KLIC goes, they can't get a break.
Last quarter they did "too" well.
Analysts all raised their earnings estimates and
the stock went down, then KLIC announced their delays
and earnings estimates were cut and the stock went down.
Do we see a trend here?