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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shadowman who wrote (31316)	8/5/2000 8:52:36 PM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 57584

A few sobering facts that any trader should keep handy. In 1990 the NASD was at 600, in 95 1000, then from 95- to July 98 the NASD hit 2000. In the fall of 98 it fell to 1300, only to recover and go to 5200 in March of 2000. So in fact it took 8.5 years to double. Lets compare our BUBBLE to that of Japans. The NIKKEI 250 took off from a low of 10,000 in 1985 to burst to a high of 40,000 in Jan of 1990. In the late winter months of 1990 the Japan NIKKEI took its first hit, from 40,000-28,000 Many investors thought the good times would continue and after the brief correction they jumped back on the Tired Bull for another rally from 28,000 to 34,000 in late 1990. What happened next wiped out many Unwavered, and Gullable traders. In late 1990 after the Nikkei rallied back to 34,000 ot took an incredible fall that when it ended the Nikkei was 22,000. But this fall happened in weeks!! The Nikkei continued to slide to roughly the 13-14000 range. Today as Japan creeps its market has seen only a high of 20,000. Thats 8-10 years since it crashed and it has only recovered 1/2 of its loses at it highest point and today trades at 15,800. My point is when I look at the Nikkei's first down turn in 1990 from 40k-28k, it reminds me of April-June in the NASD. Are we in the next phase of the actual fall in the NASD? If so I do not need to explain what would happen after we rally to 4200-4400. In Japan sellers could not get out, where would the next wave take the NASD in comparason to Japan , roughly 100% from the highest point 5000, BINGO 2500!! Backup all longs with short!!