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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gancho who wrote (4112)	8/5/2000 8:17:30 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

gancho, there are many on these thread that profess the long haul and even "loyalty" for a company they are invested in. I myself have been in ULBI for longer than a year (it is in my core holdings) and in MRK for who knows how long. That is no reason to be on my ignore list. A posters that lack civility and instead of engaging in rational deliberation engages in personal attacks, verbal pugilism and address other posters with disrespect waste my time and after being quite patient with that gentleman for some time, I put him on ignore. There is nothing he says that interests me anymore. As for "Da Cheif" professing the long term strategy, that is an oxymoron, after all he is as you say "the timer" of the year, and that, by definition, is a short or at best medium term strategy. Why time if you are a "long termer"? Last, in another post, he ridiculed the Acampora and other streets analysts for their fundamental approach, professing that he his approach is purely technical, so, in my book, he does what I do, buy low and sell high. He might have been in the holy one since its IPO, but probably sold at $20 got back in under $2 after the Motorola debacle, sold again at $11 and got back in at the end of the floorless episode, my hat off to him, but my approach has not been much different, bought and sold during the uncertainties of the floorless, then jumped in for a good ride, essentially from $7 to the mid $30, traded it few times between $26 and $35 and got caught on my last trade with a gap (since then, covered that loss few times). The difference is that I post my entries within an hour of execution (often within five minutes) so you can measure how often my turnips are right and how often they are wrong. Zeev

To: gancho who wrote (4112)	8/5/2000 11:20:11 PM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

gancho, This is one of the more useful threads in SI, I hope it doesn't get bogged down in innnuendos and name calling (unless there's comedy or it's for a good cause, but please leave out anatomies please). Ok. Maybe I can put in a few cents while I steal some time from my extended long weekend vacation. (Before my kids catch me with this laptop). 1st. 'lap-dogs' on this thread. You'll notice that by and large, people here carry out decent friendly conversations, Zeev has a lot more trading experience and TA experience, that is why I pay heed to his observations and try to validate his call against my feeble 'system' (I use the term loosely). This does not mean that I take what he says for granted, but by and large, what he has to say is a lot more interesting than many others. In the end, I fail and succeed by my own call, and now, I no longer blame anyone else (except management) but myself for my setbacks, least of all someone in a discussion thread. There is no need for anyone to insult all of us here, we're all just trying to enjoy this thread in our own way. 2. On calling sell and buy signals for any stock, one of the basic things about TA (that I'm just starting to dabble weakly in) is the determination of support and resistance lines. When a stock breaks support, that is a SELL signal, and when it breaks resistance, that is a BUY signal. This is why someone who follows a stock can issue a BUY signal at a high price, and then SELL signal on a much lower price, and repeatedly do this buy high sell low thing! 3. Presumptious assumption on my part. If I have too much of my portfolio weighed down by one stock, then I'm afraid it will skew my judgment. Any time when a stock becomes 30% of my portfolio, I get nervous. Similarly, if I own this holy one and it becomes 40% of my portfolio, I will get very unhappy if it moves in the wrong direction, and start looking for someone to blame instead of looking in the mirror (or the Annual Report's pics of the execs). Of course, I'm not saying that anyone here has that quandary, but perhaps that is something to think about. 4. The paradox of TA. For a long time, I could not believe that a bunch of squiggly lines on a chart could actually foretell something that FA could not. The pure TA guy says that there is NO REASON TO LOOK AT ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE CHART --- all is hidden in the numbers. There's an interesting quote about TA : "TA can point the way to the writing on the wall before the wall is made visible by FA". If an anecdotal example will help, look at RMBS, despite the ever increasngly heavy evidence of what is really happening with RDRAM (the fundamentals were terrible, and the people in the front lines who were evaluating the i820 in labs of PC related companies were more aware of the truth than the person on the street), BUT the stock refused to tank and often rallied strongly after each nasty drop. The unknown element was the Patent Lawsuit and rambus' lawyers --- these lawyers succeeded where their engineers failed, suddenly it didn't matter anymore if RDR failed, the revenue might still roll in! Of course, there are examples of chartists who ignored the wrong set of data and got proven wrong soon (nvda and the S-8 of Mar23,99 that the guy who called the Cup and Handle missed), so while the paradox is there, I will not dismiss TA so easily anymore. SbH - Back to my vacation. There's gotta be a fish somewhere in this here big lake... - Cold Turkey time, the world will not end if I don't trade for a few days.