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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OX who wrote (1736)	8/6/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Thanx OX; That's neat and confirms what I was thinking, in as much as I think the NDX has to be dominate to have a bullish stand so it's my key index.. The HILO in it may have peaked at 98% at any rate it says be very careful. ----------------------- My twist if I had the data is very similar , NH/(NH+NL) but I also would like to look at a 10day , 20, 40, and like maybe 120..it may show change faster , the shorter term frames should be going UP faster than the longer terms and when they get inverted look out. I do like that url :-) I asked it for history data and it gave me the XtoO and OtoX data all the way back to 3/85. ---------------- Thing is with that HILO when it's high X's and breaks down with lower O's, before you know it the NDX can dump fast. If we fail to break or even make resistance (about 4000)..on the third try some real shit could hit the fan on the next down swing. Derivatives have to be under pressure no new high in over 4 months..and we are still a way from it.. Even in the 98 pull down we were back at new highs within 4 months..the more we base the better the next up turn however too long of a base eats up a lot of money. The market is not use to staying off it's high for a long time; money has to be made to pay out retirement.. or it has to come out of the market..there is nothing that says we won't exceed the percentage drop in the S&P taht we had in 98..( 19% ) .. so far the drop only hit about 10% but it's just taking to long to make a new high..so the S&P could easily dip on down to 1250..I'm not saying it will happen..but I don't see anything that says it can't. Ya the Naz dropped more than that..ah but that money went to money heaven it didn't resurrect the S&P..we can see some of it went there..but what happened to the rest. ? Bonds ? rat holes,& spent "Marketing"..a dead cow. ------------- Did you know I just heard the major Drug dealers are spending more on marketing than they do on R&D..but they toot taht it's the high R&D that has the price of drugs going out of sight.. ------------------------ Like any big boom..( and we have had one ) crooks rush in and even once honest people start fudging..then the dream goes sour until a thinning out of the crooks gets taken serious. All that aside the S&P has barely nipped the 200MDA.. *and both in 98 AND 99 we dipped well below it, also we are taking to long to make a new high..* the next time it hits the 200mda ought to take it on down to it's real bottom . I might be all wet about this, but remember I was backing out Before the March high. And while the market dropped from March to Mid April I was UP almost 20%..I can afford to wait. I'm only short a little bit..but taht could be the way the rest of the market is too..I'm just not very strong on the long side..except for some stuff I bought below where it is now..I have one sour holding..XRX but I'm not to worried about as it looks like she has washed out most of the weak hands. Jim