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To: Rarebird who wrote (57064)	8/6/2000 3:22:37 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116976

Rare. Shame, shame, shame. It's different this time - the most dangerous words in investing. I don't know when the crisis will happen and I don't/ can't forecast short term trends in any market. I simply try and recognize when things get extremely out of whack with the norm, and position myself to participate in the reversal. When things seem too good to be true, they probably are......... "There should have been far more warning about the speculative splurge on Wall Street and the extent of citizen participation. That was the mistake that the Federal Reserve made in the Twenties, and the mistake that it has made again now..." -Economist John Kenneth Galbraith, interviewed in the Observer, June 21, 1998.

To: Rarebird who wrote (57064)	8/6/2000 11:22:00 PM
From: terryswift	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116976

<Well, hasn't it already been different this time? No, this mania has been very similar to 1928 and 1929. Also, to the "nifty fifty" crowd of the late 60s, which led to the '73-'74 recession, which was the worst since the depression of the '30s. <But a Japanese like Downturn in duration is almost impossible in the US today. The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with either the Democratic or Republican Administration that is currently in power, would initiate massive market friendly economic measures, such as enormous tax cuts, which have been proven to stimulate investment and light a fire under growth at the first sign of trouble.> Wow, are you in for a shock. The Japanese investor, along with their government, had the exact same attitude. They have now been in a recession/depression for 10 years. I would make a large bet you are closer to 30 than 40 and possibly under 30. The worst market you have seen, if any at all, was the V-shaped 2-3 week bear market of 1987. I can assure you, the next one will be much worse and last much longer.