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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JesseK who wrote (13671)	8/7/2000 7:53:51 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 60323

Now I've heard of being conservative with estimates, but this is a joke...Remember we have more capacity coming online.. I smell a rat.. Jesse, the estimates have been discussed here often. They are a joke. Eli has said that he doesn't see the capacity coming on line as sufficient to satisfy demand for several years. He has told analysts this several times on conference calls. Eli also told me in response to my question at the annual meeting that he likes to keep estimates low with his guidance and then surpass them. I can't say that I blame him for this, but I do find fault with the analysts. They clearly don't put much work or thought into their work, do they? As for only four analysts covering SNDK, it doesn't make sense. Patience is not one of my virtues, and it pisses me off to no end. I do know that in the long run earnings will come through, we will grow, and the coverage will improve. Jay

To: JesseK who wrote (13671)	8/7/2000 8:20:38 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Jesse, the analysts' estimates... ...are way off base, as Jay has pointed out. We have been poking fun at these for some time, but they aren't quite so funny anymore. As Jay stated, he asked Eli directly about this at the annual meeting. Eli knows missing estimates by a penny is far worse then underestimating them by a dime. Analysts predicted 22¢ for Q2 and we beat that by a 50% margin. Also, if SNDK is flat for the remainder of the year (which I seriously doubt) we will earn $1.20/share. I am estimating 2000 full year EPS to be in the $1.40+ range. If additional announcements like the TDK cross-licensing agreement are forthcoming, then the third "prong" of SanDisk's business model should start to contribute to the bottom line. Recall this was only the second (in addition to SSTI) CompactFlash assembly cross-licensure to be announced. Message 13371770 One thing keeps me optimistic about the balance of 2000. In the Fall of 1998, Eli and Cindy projected quarterly royalty revenues of $8.0 to $8.5 million for the next 6 or 8 quarters (or about $32 to $34 million annualized). I thought this was a bold prediction. After the 1999 Q4 results in January, Eli and Frank predicted $12 to $12.5 million in quarterly licensing and royalty fees for the next several quarters. Well, only two quarters later we did $21.4 million and now this projection is $17.5 million for the next several quarters. I anticipate at least $70 million in royalties by the end of this year for SNDK's IP. Add to that the unrealized potential of the CF assembly patents, possibly the most fruitful product line w/r/t licensure for the foreseeable future, and we can easily surpass the $70 million mark. All IMHO. No small rodents were harmed in this post. No palms were greased either. Ausdauer