8/13/00, "TA for Boneheads" update: Please see my previous "Bonehead" posts for all the usual caveats, waivers, warnings, etc. All of this is my work and my opinion only. It may be of little or no value to anyone else! I am not an expert or market guru of any kind; just a "Bonehead" looking for low-risk ways to make money position-trading (NOT daytrading) tech stocks from the long side. Price data is from market close, Friday 8/11/00. I may have positions in some or all of the securities listed here. This is posted for the benefit and perusal of all; I receive no direct financial benefit of any kind. Therefore, comments, questions and constructive criticisms are always welcome and greatly appreciated!
New Notes: a * before symbol indicates a "new buy" within the past week (or likely to be a new buy on Mon or Tues) and "up" or "down" denotes what I believe is the short term trend. OS indicates "oversold" but that is a condition which can continue for quite some time (just like OB-"overbought"). All trends can change fairly quickly so the numbers following are perhaps more valuable. Support points (SP) below the current price and resistance/breakout points (RBOP) above the current price are the result of my attempts to analyze daily charts over a one-year time period and may include a variety of chart patterns (trendlines, triangles, flags, etc) as well as moving averages, momentum indicators, and stochastics (I generally get better and more reliable results with fewer variables!). Since markets are continuously dynamic, a support point (SP) can become a new resistance/breakout point (RBOP) once it has been breached. Similarly, RBOPs can become support points once they are taken out on upmoves. Many times I have used SPs and RBOPs as effective entry and exit points for actual buy/sell stops. Sometimes I use them as guidelines or alerts. I typically allow anywhere from 2-15% as a stop loss on new entries depending upon the individual security and how close to SPs or RBOPs my purchase is made.
"New" New Notes: This past week saw an extraordinary amount of volatility, enough to completely frustrate both fundamental and technical analysts. Many traders were either whipsawed with buy/sell losses or driven to the sidelines to await calmer waters. By and large, my SP and RBOP numbers were very useful in capturing profitable positions and avoiding losses. ADAP was a notable exception; although the posted trend last week was "down," it looked like 30 would continue to hold as near-term support. Instead, after reporting what some considered inadequate numbers, ADAP quickly fell in AH trading (I was away or I would have sold in AH, too) and completely collapsed the next day through the second support point of 25 as well. Rather than invalidating resistance and support points, this downdraft in one particular issue underscores the importance of diversification and risk-management.
That said, here's this weeks's "Bonehead" update.......
*A-40 5/8, up, OS (bot @ 38 1/2), SP 38 1/2, RBOP 42, 46, 53, 60, 70, 81
ACCD-7 7/8, down, OS, SP 7 1/4, RBOP 8 1/4, 9 1/2, 10 1/2, 11 1/2, 13 1/4
*ADIC-14 3/8, up (bot @ 13 1/4-13 3/4), Trendline Supp 13, SP 12, 10, RBOP 17, 20
*ADPT-22 7/16, up (bot @ 22), Trendline Supp 21, SP 21, 18, 16, RBOP 26, 35
*AETH-149 7/16 (bot @ 145), SP 130, 120, 110, RBOP 160 (Descending Tops Line), 185, 218
ANAD-26 1/4, up, SP 24, 19, RBOP 30, 37, 43, 50
ADSX-3 5/32, down, SP 3, 2, RBOP 5 1/2, 6 1/2, 8 1/2
ADAP-23 1/8, down, OS, SP 18, RBOP 26, 35, 38, 41, 51
AOL-51 3/4, sideways, OS, SP 51, 48, RBOP 63, 70, 75
*ARTT-9 1/2, sideways, OS, SP 8, RBOP 11, 13, 18
ATHM-13 9/16, down, OS, SP 13, RBOP 14 1/2, 18, 23
ATML-26 13/16, down, OS, SP 25, 22, 15, RBOP 31, 35, 41
BOUT-28 7/8, down, SP 27, 22, RBOP 33, 36, 40, 51
BRCD-201 3/16, sideways, SP 190, 170, 160, RBOP 211, 221
BRCM-225 1/16, down, SP 215, 202, RBOP 241, 250, 262
*CICI-3, down, OS, SP 3, 2 7/8, 1 3/4, RBOP 3 1/2, 4, 5
*CNQR-3 13/16, sideways, SP 3 7/16, RBOP 5, 7 1/2, 10
*CNXT-28 5/16, down, OS, SP 26 1/2, RBOP 31, 40, gap 45, 60
COMS-15 13/16, down, OS, Trendline Supp 15, SP 14, 12, RBOP 20
*COVD-15 11/16, sideways, OS, SP 15 1/4, RBOP 21, 24, 30
CRUS-27 7/16, up, near OB, SP 24, 20
CS-28 1/2, up, SP 27, 24, RBOP 32, 38, gap 47
CSCO-64 5/16, sideways, SP 60, 55, 50, RBOP 71, 76, 83
CTXS-19 7/8, up, SP 19, 14 1/4, RBOP 26, gap 40
DISH-38 9/16, down, Trendline Supp 38 1/2, SP 36, 31, RBOP 46, 51, 65
DITC-54 7/8, up, SP 48, 43, RBOP 60, 72, 90, 97, 111
*EGAN-8 1/16, SP 8, 6 1/2, RBOP 11, 18, 23, 31
ENE-80 1/4, down, OB, SP 77, 72, 65, RBOP 84
ENGA-8 5/16, up, SP 8 1/4, 7 1/2, RBOP 10, 15, 17, 21, 30
ELON-35 1/16, donw, SP 32, 30, 28, 20, RBOP 42, gap 45, 50, 58
EXDS-56 1/4, up, SP 50, 42, 37, RBOP 56, 72, 88
EMLX-67 5/8, up, SP 57, 47, RBOP 72, gap to 80, 120
FBCE-8, up, Trendline Supp 7 5/8, SP 7, 6 1/2, 6, 5, 4 3/4, RBOP 9, 10, 11
GBLX-29 9/32, down, SP 27, 24, RBOP 33, 35, 39
*GLC-18 15/16, Trendline Supp 18 1/2, SP 18, 16, RBOP 21, 23 1/2, 27 1/2, 31
GLW-275, up, SP 269, 250, 230, RBOP 277, 287
*GNSL-14 1/16, down, OS, SP 13 1/2, 11, RBOP 16, 19, 24, 31
*HLIT-22 15/16, sideways, OS, SP 22, RBOP 25, 30, 37, 45
*HLTH-11 1/4, down, OS, No Supp, RBOP 13, 15, 1j9, 22, 27
IBM-120 5/8, up, SP 117, 114, 110, 100-105, RBOP 121, 128
*IATV-13 3/4, sideways, OS, SP 13, 11, RBOP 16, 20
IFCI-19 11/16, up, SP 17, 15, RBOP 20, 26, 29, 37
IFMX-4 9/16, sideways, SP 4 1/4, 4, RBOP 6, gap 7, 10
IMNX-50 7/8, sideways, SP 46, 38, RBOP 56, 62, 66, 70, 85
INPH-17 3/4, up, SP 16, 13, RBOP 20, 28, 35
*INSP-30 3/16, sideways, OS, SP 27, 20, 15, RBOP 36, gap 42
IONN-2 9/32, sideways, OS, SP 2 1/4, 2, RBOP 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11
*ISLD-26 1/16, sideways, OS, SP 25, 18, RBOP 29, 33, 40, 50, 60
JDSU-117 3/4, sideways, Trendline Supp 112, SP 108, 95, RBOP 125, 130, 141, 151
JNIC-47 11/16, up, SP 45, 40, 35, 30, 26, RBOP 51, 60, 63, 68, 80, 90, 110
LCOS-57 1/4, down, SP 56, 52, 49, 45, 41, RBOP 61, 66, 71
*LEXG-27 3/8, up, (bot @ 25), SP 22, 17, RBOP 31, 36, 41, 50
LPTH-32 1/2, up, Trendline Supp 30, SP 29, 25, 20, Descending Tops Line 35, RBOP 42, 48, 51, 60, 70
*LQID-6 1/4, sideways, OS, SP 6, RBOP 8, 10, 15
*LRCX-21 15/16, down, OS, SP 19, RBOP 24, 27, 30, 35, 40, 45
*LU-40, down, OS, No Supp, spec buystop @ 42 1/2, RBOP 46, 50, 55, 60, 67, 72
METHA-44 5/8, up, Trendline Supp 43, SP 38, 35, RBOP 52, 56, 60, 65
*MMPT-12 15/16, up, SP 11 1/2, 10, RBOP 16, 19, 23, 25, 35
MOT-34, down, SP 33, 29, RBOP 38, 40, 45, 52, 56
MSFT-72 7/16, up, SP 70, 67, 64, 61, RBOP 76, 83, 90
*NBCI-9 13/16, sideways, OS, SP 9 5/16, RBOP 13, 17, 20, 29
*NETP-11, sideways, OS, Spec Buy, SP 10, RBOP 15, 20, 25, 31
*NOK-41 1/2, up, SP 39, 37, 34, 28, RBOP 42, 46, 51, 57
NT-76, sideways, SP 74, 70, 67, 65, 60, RBOP 82, 85
*NXTL-54 3/16, sideways, OS, SP 52, 46, 37, RBOP 61, 65, 74, 83
NUAN-156 7/16, down, OB, SP 150, 139, 129, 120, 115, RBOP 175, 182
NTRO-61 19/32, up, SP 54, 49, 40, 30, 25, RBOP 63, 80, 91, 102
PBSC-24 5/8, up, SP 22, 20, RBOP 29
ORCH-41, down, SP 37, 27, RBOP 50, 52, 57, 61
OMKT-6 11/16, up, SP 6, RBOP 8, 10, gap 12, 15, 20
PALM-34 11/16, down, SP 33, 29, 25, 20, RBOP 41, 48, 51, 60, 72
PSFT-24 13/16, up, near OB, SP 23 3/4, 21, 19, RBOP 26, 28
PSIX-15 3/8, down, SP 15, RBOP 23, 30, 35
PUMA-18 1/2, down, SP 18, 14, RBOP 24, 30, 40, 51
Q-47, down, SP 46, 41, RBOP 54, 58, 66
QCOM-61 5/8, sideways, OS, SP 59, RBOP 71, 74, 85
RSAS-60 1/2, down, SP 60, 55, RBOP 70, 81, 93
SBAS-6 11/16, down, OS, SP 6, 4, RBOP 8, 12
SCMR-134, up, SP 128, 120, 110, 100, RBOP 141, 151, 158, 181, 200
SCON-22 1/2, up, SP 19, 13, RBOP 30, 41, 55
*SVNX-29 7/8, sideways, OS, SP 29, 36, RBOP 36, 42, 51, 61
TFSM-10 3/4, up, SP 9 1/2, RBOP 16, 21, 25, 31
TGNT-16 1/16, down, OS, SP 15 5/16, RBOP 18, 22, 28, 31, 41, 57
VNTR-11 3/8, sideways, OS, SP 10 1/2, RBOP 15, 18, 27, 33, 37
VTSS-70 15/16, up, SP 65, 58, 50, RBOP 76, 81, 91
WCAP-10 1/2, sideways, OS, SP 10, RBOP 14, 17
WCOM-33 11/16, down, OS, SP 32 1/2, RBOP 36, 41, gap 43, 46, 50
*WFII-49 1/4, down, OS, SP 47, 40, RBOP 56, 62, 71, 82, 95
WRLS-14 3/4, up, SP 13, 11, 8, RBOP 18, 21, 26
I'm trying to add in a few more each week and would greatly appreciate suggestions (although each weekly update now consumes about 8-10 hours!). During the week I also try to "flag" certain stocks as they move up along with some of my selected buys. I don't generally post as many of the sells, especially if they are are the result of sell stops using the posted numbers.
Some additional thoughts:
Prioritizing buys is difficult especially when presented with multiple opportunities for a limited budget. Which is the "better" strategy: to funnel as much money as possible into a few beaten down or low-priced stocks that appear oversold, or to spread smaller share purchases among those AND larger/stronger stocks? For me, the latter makes more sense but that is a question traders of all types answer every day. Similarly, buys and sells work "best" for me when done as scaleable positions (or partial positions) as Rande has suggested with his "hybrid trading method."
Conservative financial radio talk-show host Bob Brinker routinely recommends that no single stock purchase should make up more than 4-5% of a person's portfolio and that if that stock should appreciate to a level of 10%, profits should be taken to reduce that holding back down to 5%. I'm not quite that conservative but Mr. Brinker's strategy makes a good deal of sense and serves as a useful guideline. Naturally, I'd emphasize stronger stocks (such as IBM, for example) over riskier ones in a long term account but might have equal (or higher) dollar amounts of aggressive newer issues in a short term trading account.
Whichever way the general market goes this week there will always be winners and losers. I hope the above information helps emphasize gains and limit losses!
Best Regards,
Mark Konrad |
