Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26325)	8/7/2000 1:01:20 PM
From: Yaacov	Respond to of 27012

Good morning Sonny, and thanks! Nice to be back. I know Nokia and I own the stock. I am not least worried. It will come back. AOL??? Sonny, like you I own the stock and let me just say that I hope this stock comes back to where it was last Oct. It has lost 50% face value since the mereger news got out and I wonder when they will rise again, if ever? I believe Nokia will recover faster than AOL! Prey I be wrong. ggg While away, I have been trading using a SAT phone to my broker. I wonder they money I made paid the cost of the calls! gg Like you I have the feeling that Feds will not push the rates much higher. Else Messrs. Bush or Gore (parish the thought) may come to the office with a recession on thier hands. ggg We are having a great summer here in North of Italy. Temp. max 25 minimum 14 and clear sky. The heat will not come back to these parts. In the South and Centeral parts, it is another thing. Kind regards Yaacov

To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (26325)	8/9/2000 7:35:46 AM
From: William Hunt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27012

Sonny ---Good Morning ---an article on productivity ---basically the Fed is on hold : Productivity Boom : A good portion of the US population still thinks that productivity and production are one and the same. That's just a hint of how misunderstood this indicator is. Productivity is in fact a measure of how efficient US workers are in the production process, not a measure of how much they are producing. The efficiency of workers is a critical determinant of how fast the economy can grow without boosting inflation. It is an economic truism that the economy's noninflationary potential growth rate is equal to trend-growth in the labor force plus trend-growth in productivity. This is logical -- the only two ways to increase growth are to either have more people working, or have those who are working increase their output per hour (which is the definition of productivity). As recently as the mid-1990s, the conventional economic wisdom was that trend productivity growth was 1%. Since trend labor force growth is only about 1%, that left us with potential economic growth of about 2%. Yet as is often the case with conventional economic wisdom, this was wrong. Really wrong. With this morning's 5.3% increase in Q2 productivity, the year/year increase in productivity jumped to 5.1%. And note that it is widely agreed that the government's productivity measure understates true productivity growth -- even Greenspan has made this claim. In making our case for the new economy, we have often argued that trend productivity growth is far higher than most economists believe. But even we thought that 4% was about as good as it would get. Now we're at 5% growth on the official measure and perhaps as much as 6% for true productivity growth. Note the importance of this development -- instead of an economy that can grow at a 2% pace without producing inflation, we are now looking at an economy that can grow 5%, 6%, or maybe even 7% without sparking inflation. This certainly helps to explain how we have sustained 4-5% growth in recent years without seeing any inflationary pressures outside of energy prices. This latest Q2 report is particularly encouraging in that it occurred even as we began to see the first evidence of an economic slowdown. Productivity growth does have a cyclical component -- it tends to be stronger when growth is good and weaker when growth slows (this is because employers often allow for more idle time when growth first slows as they seek to avoid layoffs). But in Q2, these first signs of slower growth did not put the slightest dent in productivity growth. The results are plain to see -- stronger productivity growth means lower unit labor costs, and indeed unit costs are now down year/year. So much for the feared wage-push inflation. The Fed, which already looked like it could hold steady in August, now has even more reason to leave well enough alone. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com BEST WISHES BILL PS ---Now if oil would stabilize at 25.00 a barrel !