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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Junkyardawg who wrote (48038)	8/7/2000 12:58:12 PM
From: Junkyardawg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

Someone sent me this article. I invite all of you to read it. Steve Smith's Perspective: My Kiss of Death individualinvestor.com Staff Writer: Steve Smith (8/4/00) For nearly eight years now, I've been wooing investors to move over to the bearish side. I've talked of overvaluation, overcapacity, irrational exuberance and simple natural economic cycles. I've even cooed the virtues of prudence and the promise to do the dishes when appliance parts become unavailable. Now I've come to realize this is no way to win affection and love investors. One must offer flattery, and say the words that the objects of my desire pine to hear. So, pucker up baby, I am turning bullish and am about to lay a big sloppy kiss on your greedy lips. But beware, it may be the kiss of death, in which case I shall file for divorce and take you for half of everything you've earned since 1992. Why my sudden reluctant change of heart? Call it LIFO-last in, first out. And that is the way I would approach the ensuing technology led rally that brings the Nasdaq Composite back up to the 5000 level. I am totally convinced that Thursday morning August 3 represented a summer washout of the spring bear market. The Nasdaq traded down to 3521 on heavy opening volume. That was above the April 14 close of 3321.29 and well higher than the May 23 low point of 3164.55. And to boot, the stocks are rallying into the close. This looks to me like a classic inverted head and shoulders formation. But then again I'm a bit myopic. After butting up against the 4100-4200 resistance level several times during the past four months, it finally looks like the index has consolidated enough and has a head of steam to move higher. We're nearly through second quarter earnings reports, most of which came in above expectations, except for those software companies whose salespeople failed "to close, now understand we didn't lose the business, it just didn't get signed before quarter's end." Those stocks were decimated. The good companies, the generals like Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO - Quotes, News, Boards), Rambus (NASDAQ: RMBS - Quotes, News, Boards) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM - Quotes, News, Boards)-let's not even talk about Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT - Quotes, News, Boards) -have done nothing but tread water or worse since March. A good sign is we have ridden ourselves of the dreck, the hangers on and me-too dot-com billion dollar market cap companies. Now we can go back to picking quality companies. Not the ones hoping to take a ride at the public's expense. Let's talk market internals. They have gotten better. After weeks (actually 20 months) of a declining advance/decline line the market has finally broadened over the past two weeks. Credit the anticipation of the coming end of the rate heightening cycle, but financials, retailers and utilities are finally showing signs of life. And even though these sectors have little to do with the Nasdaq, remember that a bull market is led by the glamour boys. The stars these days reside on "the tech-laden Nasdaq" and they will take us back to stratospheric prices. That is where the growth is and it now appears money will again be reaching for the stars. So Vito, I mean Icarus, enjoy your next six-week flight, but this is the last bit of love I will show you. dawg