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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (9409)	8/7/2000 4:31:40 PM
From: jghutchison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

I remember reading that George Gilder predicted the decline of SONET after the year 2000 in favor of DWDM. I am now reading reports that SONET will retain its market share through 2001. Have you changed your opinion of SONET's durability? Kenneth, my opinion has not changed, and if anything, it has been reinforced by market share figures presented recently by RHK. Although terrestrial SONET hardware sales are still growing, they are growing at a much lower rate than DWDM. I also believe that the SONET figures include "SONET II", ie the hardware sold by Cerent, Redback, Cyras and others. These boxes are rapidly displacing traditional SONET boxes for edge access due to their size, power consumption, and cost...about one tenth that of traditional stuff offered by Lucent, Nortel et al. The submarine market is also dominated by legacy SONET gear, but the changover to DWDM is in the wind. When consultants present market share figures, it is not clear if the figures represent installations, dollars, or capacity. The data are therefore hardly conclusive. Jack PS: What do you make of Corvis claim to be the ultra long distance leader? From what I've read Qtera still has the edge.