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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (9123)	8/7/2000 4:45:16 PM
From: SeaViewer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Consumer debt keeps expanding... bloomberg.com U.S. Economy: Consumer Borrowing Rose $12 Bln in June (Update1) By Siobhan Hughes Washington, Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Borrowing by U.S. consumers rose by a greater-than-expected $12 billion in June, Federal Reserve statistics showed, suggesting consumer spending isn't likely to slow much in coming months. June's increase, led by the largest increase in auto and personal loans in 18 months, followed a revised $14.2 billion rise in consumer credit in May. Including the June figures, borrowing rose at a 9.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, compared with a 10.3 percent pace in the first quarter -- when consumer spending grew at the fastest rate in almost 17 years. ``Consumer demand is apparently still booming,'' said Tim Rogers, an economist at Briefing.com in Boston. ``It appears borrowing is how they are paying'' for everything from cars to clothing to college tuitions, he said. Analysts had expected June borrowing to rise by $9 billion, following the $11.8 billion increase previously reported for May. May's revised increase was the largest since January of this year. Revolving loans, which include credit cards, increased by $3.7 billion in June after rising $6.3 billion a month earlier. Auto and other personal loans rose $8.3 billion after increasing $7.8 billion in May. The increase in auto and personal loan debt was the largest since a $10 billion rise in January 1999. Economists watch the Fed's report as one gauge of consumer demand. While the statistics include credit card debt as well as loans for autos and other purposes, they don't include home equity loans or other debt secured by real estate, which have grown in popularity over the past decade for financing cars and other consumer purchases. Low Unemployment Americans have remained willing to borrow as an abundance of jobs has bolstered their confidence. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4 percent in July, near April's record-low of 3.9 percent, and the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence in the U.S. economy rose to 141.7 in July, close to the record high of 144.7 reached in May and January. Still, stocks this year haven't registered the double-digit gains seen in the late 1990s. The Nasdaq Composite Index, 75 percent of which is computer, telecommunications and biotechnology shares, has fallen about 5 percent so far this year after rising almost 86 percent in 1999. The Standard & Poor's index of 500 stocks is little changed so far this year, after gaining almost 20 percent last year. ``It's always dangerous this late in an expansion when the borrowing continues to advance strongly,'' Rogers said. ``The danger would be if you saw a big stock market correction and folks were unable to repay some of this debt.'' So far, consumers are keeping their fiscal house in order. Credit Card Delinquencies Even with the rise in credit card use in May and June, delinquencies on revolving debt hit a five-year low in the first quarter, the American Bankers Association said in June. Credit card delinquencies, based on total dollars outstanding, were 3.94 percent in the first quarter, down from 4.28 percent in the final three months of 1999. ``This suggests that banks and consumers overall are doing a good job managing their risk and exposure,'' said James Chessen, the trade group's chief economist. The increases in May and June borrowing coincided with jumps in retail sales those months. Sales rose 0.5 percent in June, following a 0.3 percent increase in May. Higher sales at auto dealers and gasoline stations -- the latter partly a result of rising prices -- led the June increase. Fed policy-makers have raised interest rates six times since June 1999 to cool the economy and head off the threat of accelerating inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee meets again Aug. 22 to consider whether to raise the overnight bank lending rate again. American Express Today's report shows borrowing has picked up even with those rate increases, rising at a 10.5 percent annual pace through the first six months of this year compared with a 7.1 percent increase for all of last year. At American Express Co., the world's largest charge card issuer, profit for the second quarter rose 15 percent from the same period a year earlier in part because customers charged more on the company's cards. And Providian Financial Corp. the biggest issuer of credit cards to consumers with tarnished credit, said second-quarter profit rose 48 percent from the year-earlier period as it issued more cards and consumers spent more on plastic. Even so, evidence is mounting that consumer demand is starting to cool amid higher interest rates. Sales of new single- family homes fell in June from a month earlier to the lowest level in 2 1/2 years. U.S. retail sales in June showed the smallest increase from the year-earlier period in almost three years, as rising interest rates and higher gasoline prices crimped demand for clothing. Higher borrowing costs may be one reason consumer spending, particularly for automobiles, slowed to a 3 percent annual rate in the second quarter from a 7.6 percent rate in the first. At General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., and DaimlerChrysler AG, U.S. auto sales fell in June compared with the same month a year earlier. Sales of North-American built trucks fell 5.8 percent at GM. 3.1 percent at Ford, and 9.8 percent at Daimler Chrysler.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (9123)	8/7/2000 4:51:18 PM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, is that where they cook the number based on the assumption that my 1 Gigahertz pc will allow me to be twice as productive for the same price as I was with my 500mhz machine? I actually believe the reverse - the faster internet porn can stream to someone's pc, the less work they will be getting done at the office. Nobody needs a Gig of clock speed to put together a power point presentation.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (9123)	8/7/2000 4:53:48 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, I quite disagree with your concept of faster CPU!! Did you know that my fingers work 5 times faster on the keyboard with a ONE GIGA CPU than let say on a 200 Meg, K6 in composing a well thought trough letter....... review time ..... oh well just forget those human weaknesses. Oh yes and my spreadsheet get's recalculate in 2 msec instead of 15 msec so I can browse the internet more at work to check out porno sites and stock prices!!!! Oh GEEE I am so much productive ...... chatrooms, stock quotes and some spreadsheet updating all at once!!!!!! ........ and then wonder why planes fall out of the sky ........ productivity man!!!!.... productivity. Productivity you can use, ....... grows in leaps and bounds, and the credit expansion is well deserved due to the economic fundamentals which are a result of ever growing productivity gains. BTW based on my calculation in 10 years from now the US will eliminate 30% to 40% of it's workforce needs and they all will retire rich on stock profits........all due to the productivity gains........did I mention only tech stocks related to the internet .......remeber this one PROFITS FREE CASH FLOW ? DO NOT COUNT .......... as that's old era stuff. KIDWB miaH