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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7923)	8/7/2000 6:22:16 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 12823

Is There Hope for VDSL?/ article VDSL is fast and affordable, but widespread adoption isn’t a sure thing. by Tom Nolle Network Magazine 08/04/00, 6:08 p.m. ET Most of the Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) debates focused on how to achieve low-end-of-the-broadband performance over relatively long copper loops. This resulted in an industry bias toward Asymmetrical DSL (ADSL). However, a new RBOC project may open the door for a faster, more exciting form of DSL known as Very High Bit Rate DSL (VDSL). VDSL can deliver up to 14.5Mbits/sec over loops just shy of a mile long (1.5 kilometers), and an eye-popping 58Mbits/sec on loops less than 1,000 feet. The new RBOC plans will support broadband access through fiber remotes rather than home-run copper loop, and it's likely that Competitive Local Exchange Carriers (CLECs) will adopt similar fiber-based practices. Carrier fiber remotes would terminate a copper loop at the remote concentrator, which is a box or hut close to the customer, not back in the Central Office (CO). GET SHORTY The RBOCs expect to reduce the average loop length to less than 1,000 feet. Many-perhaps most-homes and businesses would thus be in range of the highest-rate VDSL services. In effect, this would provide the bandwidth of a T3 connection at a price that could be within reach of all small businesses and even some residential users. But is it too good to be true? The key prerequisite for VDSL availability is the deployment of fiber remotes to shorten loop length. SBC's (www.sbc.com) Project Pronto is the best-published RBOC effort in this area, and SBC has an aggressive deployment schedule that would deploy nearly 10,000 such remotes by the end of 2000. Overall, the company expects to deploy nearly 30,000 remotes. I estimate that the total number of fiber remotes that could be deployed by 2005 in the United States will exceed 100,000. Such a number would put VDSL within at least technical reach of as many as 80 million sites. VDSL HURDLES As important as the mass deployment of fiber remotes would be to VDSL availability, it doesn't tell the whole story. Two other factors could limit the extent to which the deployed fiber remotes could offer VDSL service. The first factor is the bandwidth between the remote and carrier serving offices-the “uplink.” Current fiber remotes from Alcatel (www.alcatel.com)-the feature player in the SBC deployment-include a model with two OC-3 uplinks and one with an OC-12 uplink. Two OC-3s offer about 300Mbits/sec; an OC-12, about 600Mbits/sec. If each user has 58Mbits/sec, there won't be very many users per fiber remote. This would make the cost per user unacceptably high. While costs could be reduced by assuming that users shared the uplink for nonvoice traffic, bandwidth oversubscription would reduce the chance that VDSL loops could support video applications. The second factor is total infrastructure cost. Running a fiber connection to each remote would require massive fiber deployment. The answer is a hierarchical network; for example, power companies generate high voltage and deliver it to distribution centers and subcenters, from which it eventually works its way to the home. In information networking, the architecture that shows the greatest promise is Passive Optical Networking (PON). PON fiber networks, unlike our power-grid example and today's traditional networks, don't require a device at each fiber junction. Instead, the fiber is installed like a tree, with “branches” off from the “trunk” (which connects to the carrier's serving office), and branches from other branches. Each branch point is a passive optical splice. The beauty of this approach is that a very large service area can be covered by a PON at a very low equipment cost; equipment is required only at the head end of the trunk and the serving point at the end of each active branch. APON ON THE LINE The problem PON generates, however, is obvious: The laser transmission from each user point collides with others at each splice creating mass confusion. Fortunately, Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing (DWDM) can keep individual PON users separate. ATM technology can format information on each wavelength, creating an ATM PON (APON) system. APON is the subject of an ITU standard, G.983. One of the Alcatel re-motes is compatible with APON, according to Alcatel literature. SBC and BellSouth have both indicated plans to deploy APON technology in their new broadband access networks. APON trials also are being conducted internationally. However, it's not clear whether any, or all, of the 10,000 SBC remotes scheduled for deployment in 2000 will be on PON fiber. If you want to believe in a VDSL future, you'd better hope that all of them are. If PON/APON is deployed selectively, it may foreclose universal VDSL because of the cost of retrofitting non-PON remotes. Likewise, a large commitment to low-speed fiber remotes (OC-3) would starve the VDSL loops of the uplink bandwidth needed to support high-demand applications like video. There may be no issue as important to broadband applications as the success of VDSL. Users should monitor the fiber access products and carrier deployment plans to ensure their interests are served. Tom Nolle is president of CIMI (www.cimicorp.com), a consulting firm for strategic technology planning. He can be reached at tnolle@cimicorp.com. networkmagazine.com

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (7923)	8/8/2000 12:11:27 AM
From: Mkilloran	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

MikeM54321 ...a few reasons why MSO's are moving to digital broadcast connecting settop boxes to your TV: From Cable World.... Tiers of Happiness for MSOs by K.C. Neel The rollout of digital services is taking the cable industry by storm these days. But MSOs are beginning to take diametrically opposing approaches to marketing the service. While Comcast is adding 33 channels of programming to its lineup for an extra $5 a month, Adelphia is giving away its digital tier to multipay customers. Both moves are big departures from previous marketing efforts by the MSOs. Adelphia has counted on the revenue from its digital tiers to goose its bottom line numbers. Comcast has eschewed the slew of new digital networks, relying instead on multiplexed pay services and pay-per-view channels to fill its digital tier. "Our research shows people want more viewing options," says Comcast Cable president Steve Burke. At a time when digital packages are flooding MSOs’ coffers with close to $50 million in additional revenue each month, Adelphia’s decision to give the service away is a bold move that has some observers scratching their heads. Adelphia CFO Tim Rigas says it’s a natural progression. He’s seen too many subscribers defect to DBS in recent years, and he wants to use digital as a retention tool for his best customers. Rigas admits Adelphia could lose some incremental cash flow in the beginning. Yet in the long run, he figures the company will come out ahead financially and make customers happier at the same time. The way he sees it, basic customers will be more likely to upgrade their service if they know they’re going to be getting more for their money. While he believes upgrades and retention are good reasons to switch digital marketing strategies, his real goal is to increase penetration of digital boxes. He thinks video-on-demand and interactivity will drive revenues in the future, not just monthly revenue from some additional programming services. "In the next three years," Rigas says, "we think we’ll have a 50% digital box penetration rate. At that rate, we expect to be getting between $40 and $50 per customer in revenue from digital services alone." Meanwhile, Comcast is reconfiguring its digital tier in a way that company executives hope will accelerate additional revenue. Until now, Comcast’s digital tier has been made up of multiplex pay, PPV, digital audio and an interactive guide for $9.95 a month. The company is expanding that service to include 33 more networks such as nine channels from MTV Networks, Weatherscan Local from the Weather Channel; six services from Discovery Networks; and 13 Encore channels. "Our package has been heavily aimed at our pay customers until now," says Comcast VP-marketing Andy Adis. "We waited to launch digi-services, so we could gain some leverage and cut better carriage deals. But we’re now at the point where we see a major opportunity to continue the momentum with our basic customers." Comcast is reconfiguring all its tiers now. The company is eliminating its analog tiers and will repackage its expanded analog tier to include those analog services, Adis says. The company will also phase out its $10.95 package, although existing digital customers won’t be forced to take the $14.95 service unless they want it.