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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (27021)	8/7/2000 9:50:22 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Re: WINTEL - WIN2K eats SUNW lunch in low and midrange servers. That is why SUNW filed a complain with the EU fear of WINTEL and WIN2K If comparing to CSCO SUNW is in much more competitive environment. Haim, this isn't even the half of it. Where the fck is the UltraSparc III? It's still* MIA. The delusional bulls are claiming they don't need it because there is heavy demand for existing product. Boy, that makes a lot of sense, IBM's S80 is outselling the E10000 (Sun's biggest) at a 3 to 1 ratio with **40 less processors and MORE power. IBM is currently replacing the .25um POWER3's with .18um POWER3's, so it will continue to get worse. Then next year the POWER4 will be a big wake up call for Sun. A four chip module with 8 cpu's will likely blow away the current E10000 with 64 processors, and the four chip module can be manufactured for under $2500. Add to that, IBM has signed deals to fab for CPQ and HWP using their latest copper/SOI technologies. Sun has to rely on TI on an Al process. It will be a cold day in hell before IBM would ever fab for Sun, you can thank McNealy personally for that. Probably the only company in a worse situation is Intel. No copper and no SOI on the horizon, and dozens of current problems. IBM and AMD are by far the leaders in current processor technology. IA64 is a terrible design, I don't expect it ever to be a factor. The real question is, what's going to suck more, IA64 or Win64? It will never penetrate anything but the low end, where Wintel already dominates. Sun's MAJC architecture is actually pretty solid, too bad it relies on TI. IBM's POWER architecture is very similar to the MAJC, but they don't appear to have problems making the chips. IA64 is based off of an outdated EPIC design. This is at polar opposite with IBM's and Sun's plans. Multi-threaded designs are key for servers, I just can't understand what Intel is doing. Few that understand this game can though. My guess is Merced will likely go down as the worst mpu design in history, for any company. Still, taking all of this into account gives you little that will help with investing. Intel is in serious** trouble, but keeps going up. As the days pass, Sun's competitors are all taking steps to be more competitive while Sun can't get competitive product out, but they keep going up. regards, chic