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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hui zhou who wrote (9728)	8/14/2000 6:36:57 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 9980

Beijing's Anxiety Summary Almost half of the Chinese Communist Party's local secretaries have been called back to Beijing for further indoctrination and training. These chiefs are Beijing's front line troops in the country's great contradictory effort: opening the economy while maintaining tight political control. These low-ranking officials occupy the pivotal point at which the party and business intersect, and Beijing is signaling that they may not be up to the job. Analysis For the first time in more than 50 years Communist Party chiefs at the county level have been summoned to Beijing for indoctrination and management training. More than 2,000 party secretaries - nearly half the total in China - will undertake advanced studies at the Central Party School. This is the party's top educational institution, formerly reserved for high officials. The training program highlights Beijing's concern with the interaction between politics and economics at the local level. Though they make thousands of decisions about which companies will thrive and which will not, these local officials are a long way from the center of power and often prone to bribery. Beijing clearly sees its authority slipping at the most significant level - this interface between the party and the masses - and appears to be taking emergency measures to bolster its authority. County authorities form a critical link between the Communist Party and the people. Many are elected by popular vote. Counties are the lowest levels of the party with the power to form standing committees - which is where much of the real work of governance is done. Though the lowest officials with real power - and the most distant from Beijing - these people are critical to the government's control of the regions. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ On Aug. 7, Hong Kong iMail reported that Chinese authorities are hiring additional lecturers and building additional classrooms and dormitories at the Central Party School campus in western Beijing. The paper reported that it would take at least three years to complete the training courses for the 2,000 party heads. The courses will last six months, longer than the four months allotted for ministerial officials. The entire process is unorthodox, considering that local Communist officials have their own schools, usually at the provincial or municipal level. This high-level attention underscores the importance Beijing attaches to this training. The secretaries are to "advance their ideology, [at the] professional and managerial level," according to sources cited by iMail. This massive educational effort appears to be an attempt to buttress the party at what is simultaneously its weakest and most critical point. The Chinese government is constantly attempting to manage the pains of economic growth, for example weighing the economic benefits of shutting down inefficient state-owned enterprises against the social costs -- and political risks - of increasing the number of unemployed workers. While Beijing is attempting to handle questions about the roles of multinational corporations and large Chinese companies in a state- controlled economy, local authorities deal with much lower profile, but myriad companies. The tens of thousands of small- and medium- sized businesses are the real engines of economic growth. County authorities need to make thousands of delicate, difficult decisions - which cumulatively add up to a large portion of the national economy. _______________________________________________________________ For more on China, see: stratfor.com __________________________________________________________________ These officials have to resolve the tension between economic reform and social stability, and operationalize central policy on a daily basis. This is especially true if China becomes a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). If accepted, the country will likely have to liberalize its agricultural sector, which will involve thousands of low-level decisions involving millions of farmers. But distance makes it difficult to double-check their judgement, and erodes the central government's authority. Central officials often lack sufficient power and are prone to corruption. Beijing clearly sees its authority slipping at the most significant level and appears to be taking emergency steps to bolster its authority. This training program is an attempt to prepare the local authorities to make the decisions that will set the course for the economy. _______________________________________________________________ For more on the Asia, see: stratfor.com _______________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com

To: hui zhou who wrote (9728)	8/22/2000 12:33:31 AM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

China's Hand in Africa's Wars Summary In a bid to develop a market for its arms industry, China has dispatched four military delegations to sub-Saharan Africa in the last few months. South Africa and the United Nations have worked to resolve the region's conflicts. But China's new policy - really intended to get the People's Liberation Army out of the Chinese economy - threatens to create a miniature but destabilizing arms race in southern Africa. Analysis A visiting delegation of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) officials met with senior Namibian military officials on Aug. 14 to discuss Namibia's defense force structure, reported the Namibian news agency, Nampa. The delegation then visited a military vehicles manufacturer owned by the Namibian military. Within the last few months, Beijing has sent four military delegations to Africa. Officially, the trips are designed to strengthen military cooperation between China and its African allies. In reality, the trips signal China's plan to increase weapons sales. If just one regional player begins to modernize its weapons, others in the region will be forced to follow suit. International, as well as South African, efforts to bring peace will be undermined. The PLA visit to Namibia is part of a pattern stretching back to May, when Chinese officers visited Angola and Botswana. Both missions resulted in bilateral agreements to strengthen military cooperation. In July, a group of Chinese warships made a landmark visit to the continent, calling on ports in South Africa and Tanzania. These contacts appear to be aimed at achieving financial gain, not the geopolitical influence that Beijing sought in Africa during the Cold War. In a bid to counter both Moscow and Washington, Beijing supported rebel movements in Angola and Namibia and sold arms to Sudan and Zimbabwe. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ These contacts appear to be aimed at achieving financial gain, not the geopolitical influence that Beijing sought in Africa during the Cold War. In a bid to counter both Moscow and Washington, Beijing supported rebel movements in Angola and Namibia and sold arms to Sudan and Zimbabwe. Today, Beijing is looking to shift its military's money-making away from China's domestic industries and toward shipping arms abroad. Doing so will strengthen the hands of civilian Chinese leaders. Arms exports, after all, require government approval. They also satisfy the PLA's need to make up for revenues lost as it abandons domestic enterprises. In Africa, the Chinese military is starting from scratch: looking to strike comparatively small deals - when compared to the United States and Russia - in places without heavy competition. According to Chinese government statistics, the PLA has arms export deals with only 22 countries in the world. Only two are in Africa. The structure of these deals can be novel. For instance, the PLA has reportedly traded Kalashnikov rifles for eight tons of ivory, reported the London newspaper, the Sunday Times, on July 9. But the sale of even comparatively small amounts of arms can begin to tip the balance of power and trigger a round of buying. In Namibia, for instance, the PLA has reportedly sold at least four K- 8 advanced training aircraft, according to a report by Republikein, a Namibian newspaper, on July 27. A two-seat jet aircraft capable of a speed of 590 miles per hour, the K-8 can also be configured as a light ground attack aircraft. _____________________________________________________________ For more on China, see: stratfor.com _______________________________________________________________ It is often equipped with a 23-millimeter gun under the fuselage, a self-computing optical gun sight and two hard points, for carrying bombs or rockets. Several countries, including Pakistan, use the jets in the ground attack and reconnaissance roles. Once Namibia places the jets into operation, others like Botswana will feel the need to buy these or similar aircraft. All the regional players have a huge demand for small arms. Angola, Botswana and Namibia have increased defense spending while Angola and Namibia spend resources fighting two major conflicts. Luanda has doubled its troop numbers, from 60,000 in 1998 to 114,000, in the 25-year-old civil war against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Botswana uses the bulk of its weapons budget to buy armored vehicles, heavy guns, small arms ammunition and stun grenades, reported the London daily, the Financial Times on July 22. Such an arms race could threaten one of the few sources of stability in the region: South Africa's military superiority. Pretoria still has the upper hand, compared to other regional militaries. And South Africa has scaled down its troop numbers while modernizing its weaponry. In September 1999, South Africa spent $5 billion on high- tech, foreign-made weapons, including three new submarines, four warships, 40 helicopters and 28 fighter jets. But the flow of arms to the region threatens to prolong conflict - in opposition to the South African, and international, attempts to tamp down Africa's wars. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Asia, see: stratfor.com For more on the Middle East & Africa, see: stratfor.com _______________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com

To: hui zhou who wrote (9728)	8/23/2000 11:18:48 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 9980

Another clear difference between Western and Asian values (as represented by the Chinese Totalitarian system): the-times.co.uk Chinese kill baby to enforce birth rule FROM OLIVER AUGUST IN BEIJING CHINA has been shaken by one of the most horrifying cases of official infanticide in recent memory after family planners drowned a healthy baby in front of its parents. The actions of the officials in the village of Caidian, in the central Hubei province - carried out as part of China's one-child policy - caused a public outcry which forced the Hubei government to pledge that those responsible would be punished, a rarity in such cases. The baby's mother, identified by Chinese newspapers as Mrs Liu, was expecting her fourth child. Couples in the countryside, where 70 per cent of China's people live, often have more than one child without punishment, despite the policy. But in Mrs Liu's case she was forcibly injected with a saline solution to induce labour and kill the child. However, the baby was born healthy, to the surprise of family planning officials who had ordered the injection, which ordinarily destroys the infant's nervous system. Immediately after the birth, they ordered the father to kill the child outside the hospital. He refused to obey but was so scared of further punishment that he left the crying baby behind in an office building, where it was found by a doctor shortly afterwards. The doctor took the baby back to the hospital and reunited it with its mother. He removed the umbilical cord, administered vaccinations and then sent the family home. Five officials were waiting for them in their living room. During the ensuing argument, the officials grabbed the baby, dragged it out of the house and drowned it in a paddy field in front of its parents. Such was the public outcry in Hubei that people in Caidian contacted newspapers in the nearby metropolis of Wuhan on the Yangtze River. This led to national media attention which forced the Hubei government to pledge that it would punish the guilty officials. Since its implementation in the early 1970s, the one-child policy has been dogged by allegations that family planning officials force those who break the rules into having abortions. The policy was introduced to ensure that China, a land historically beset by flood and famine, could feed all its people - now exceeding 1.1 billion - from a mere 7 per cent of the world's arable land. Last month Zhang Weiqing, Beijing's Family Planning Minister, said he would not tolerate officials abusing women in order to achieve birth control targets. He said: "We have a strict policy. We deal with every violation by officials seriously." He was responding to media reports that in Nanhai, Guangdong, family planning officials held pregnant women in detention centres for violating the one-child policy. The Government has recently restated its full commitment to the policy despite the abuses.The official Xinhua news agency commented: "Without taking effective measures to slow down the rapid growth of its population, China would have 300 million people more than the current figure." A foreign demography expert said: "There are reports of people who have more than one child being beaten up, ostracised by the community and their houses demolished, but it is not condoned by the central government." The doctor who tended the baby in Caidian said: "How could they be so cruel? The child could have been looked after in a children's welfare home. How could they do it?"