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To: Alex who wrote (57121)	8/9/2000 2:52:59 AM
From: PaulM	Respond to of 116984

CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS RELEASE conference-board.org As far where the US economy is, I generally trust private sources more than govt sources. Among the interesting things in this release is that the lagging indicators, which typically only rise AFTER a recession has commenced are rising unifromly and smartly. As they put it: "If sharp increases in the lagging index continue, cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability." My laymen's take on this is that much of the real economy is already acting as if the cycle has ended. But credit sensitive sectors--stocks, Wall Street, real estate, etc.--continue pulling the economy along explosively. If that's true, then it seems that once stocks fall for real, we should see an instant recession in the US.