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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/8/2000 9:22:19 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Spending on thin-film deposition tools will double by 2002, says report Semiconductor Business News (08/08/00, 07:38:38 PM EDT) NEW TRIPOLI, Pa.--Capital spending on deposition equipment for thin-film materials on semiconductors will grow 59% to $5.6 billion in 2000 and reach $7.4 billion in 2002, according to a new report from The Information Network here. By 2002, deposition tool revenues will double the amount spent on systems in 1999, said the report. However, the market for deposition equipment--including chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and physical vapor deposition (PVD) systems--will begin to erode in 2003 because of excess wafer fab capacity, according to Robert Castellano, president of the market research firm. "However, ECD [electrochemical deposition] tools will continue to grow in 2003 and 2004 because IC manufacturers will continue to make technology purchases at a time when capacity purchases slows," he said, referring to copper plating systems used for next-generation interconnects.

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/8/2000 9:23:49 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

It may not be as sexy as 200 or 300mm, but it's still money in the bank: Agilent builds 6-inch fab for new type of chip filter in cell phones Semiconductor Business News (08/08/00, 12:05:00 PM EDT) PALO ALTO, Calif.--Agilent Technologies Inc. today announced it was building a new 6-inch wafer fab in Newark, Calif., which will be dedicated for film-bulk acoustic resonator (FBAR) filter that are used in cellular phone and other wireless products. The spin-off company from Hewlett-Packard Co. also said it was setting up a new high-volume, automated assembly line for the new filter products in Penang, Malaysia. Agilent said its FBAR technology will enable the miniaturization of high-performance filters for duplexers in code division multiple access (CDMA) handsets, operating in the 400-MHz to 1-GHz frequency range. Agilent said its first FBAR product will be released in September and aimed at CDMA-based PCS duplexer applications. The duplexer combines filters that separate transmitted and received signals in cell phones. "Companies have been researching FBAR-type devices for several years," said Bryan Ingram, business unit manager for the Wireless Semiconductor Division at Agilent. He said the company is "commitment to build a dedicated world class production facility shows that we are the first to make this a viable, high-volume technology." According to Agilent, there are currently two main technologies for duplexers -- ceramic and surface acoustic wave (SAW). Agilent said its FBAR duplexer occupies a small fraction of the volume of a ceramic duplexer, and it has better rejection, insertion loss, and power handling characteristics than SAW devices. This combination enables cellular phone manufacturers to produce new, compact handsets with higher performance, added the HP spin-off. Moreover, the FBAR device is based on semiconductor technology, which allows the integration of the filters into the radio-frequency (RF) section of a phone, said Agilent, which added that this enables ultra-small RF modules. "FBAR's combination of small size and high performance has resulted in tremendous pull from customers who are creating the next generation of CDMA handsets," said Dave Allen, vice president of Agilent's Wireless Semiconductor Division. "With this new fab, we intend to stay ahead of this demand so our customers can achieve their expected growth over the next several years." The 6-inch wafer fab is expected to begin volume production in the fourth quarter of 2000. Agilent said it has been working with selected customers to provide early samples of its CDMAdvantage PCS duplexer. General sampling of the device is slated to begin at the end of 2000.

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/8/2000 9:39:03 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Mitch, I forgot to say welcome aboard. Nice to see that there are still people out there who can filter the facts through all of the noise. Wherever one buys AMAT in the cycle, they will be profitable if they have a long time horizon. I first got into AMAT in October of '95, and watched my stock drop from $50 to $21($12 to $6 split adjusted). Although it was extremently painful, looking back puts these daily swings into perspective. I also "loaded up the truck" in '96 at around $6 or so. I am not bragging by any means; simply pointing out that AMAT will reward you if you stick with it and really load up when opportunity begs. Buying AMAT in '96 at a PSR of 1 was perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity. I thought it deserved a much higher valuation then and still do. This company is the reason CSCO reported record revenue tonight. Without AMAT there would be no CSCO, no INTC, no MSFT no EMC. How do you place a value on a company in such a position? Hats off to Morgan & Co; they are the best around by far IMO. Brian

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/8/2000 10:43:25 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

mitch-c, thanks for your post, and welcome! One of the things that is confusing Wall Street, in my opinion, is that in the last couple of cycles, major downtrends in the stock price took a number of months to be confirmed by weakness in the underlying business of the sector. But this time, we seem to have gone much longer past the peak in stock prices without seeing significant signs of business weakness, so it seems that the stock market may have lost its predictive powers for this sector. I believe the reason is that this time, the major peak was produced primarily by a blow-off speculative top in the NASDAQ, rather than by industry fundamentals. So while the current P/Es appear a little low considering what's happening business-wise, the P/Es in April had risen to unprecedented levels. Yet to be seen is when, and to what extent, the slowing in economic growth which the Fed is pressing for will affect the semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment industries. There is usually a time lag, especially for the equipment industry, but I wish I knew a way of quantifying it. I wonder what role the interest rate rises in '94 had in bringing on the '95-'96 tech decline. If they did play a role, then using that cycle as a model would suggest that the April stock peak was at least a year early by 1995 standards.

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/9/2000 10:28:51 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

My hat's off to the consistent "gorillas" here - Tito (LEAPS), Gottfried (charts and sanity checker), BK (newshound), Katherine (technical detail), and all the others I can't remember immediately. I think it's become clear over time that this thread out-analyzes the supposed professionals. Mitch, I have not found any other threads on SI or anywhere for that matter that compare to this one. If you or anyone else know of any others please let me know. More than any with any other stock, when i buy amat i feel confident about the outcome because of the folks here. This is not my area of expertise buy i always feel i am doing dd because of what i learn here, especially what I learn from Brian. Mike

To: mitch-c who wrote (36365)	8/9/2000 10:44:35 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Hi Mitch-c, Welcome to Contribute to this Thread whose Contributors form a Consensus of the Future direction of the Chip business and the Future price of AMAT that no Paid Analyst can match. Paid Analysts are there for Short Term Traders. Disguising their predictions as Long Term by saying their's are for 12 months, they cause the Market and thus the stock to YoYo so as to cause more business for their respective companies and their clients... Although they are not of much use to us, I admit, they help us acquire more bargains. We in this Thread are mostly patient waiting --- for a Home Run (and in the case of LEAPs --- a Grand Slam)...