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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Van Winkle who wrote (159278)	8/8/2000 9:51:44 PM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Respond to of 176387

Mike: Agree with you 100% ... ... on timing/picks/what to do otherwise. I'm a novice with only five years and not full-time, and not a financial analyst type, and not really knowledgeable at all in investing. However, I think it's quite obvious that the 'bloom is off the rose' regarding DELL as a momentum stock for those of us who are not heavily invested (meaning being forced by age/concentration in the stock, possibly through being an employee) to hold it. I think the same thing about CPQ and HWP. GTW a frog in the pan, if you ask me. AAPL -- "same as it ever was" <g> as the Talking Heads would say. I'm probably going to get out of DELL altogether. Don't really have enough shares to make much money on selling CCs. Am extremely concerned that any/all so-called 'news' will continue to negatively impact DELL ... It's the market cap, damnit. And the employee stock options. And the competition. And the execs themselves who have already made their fortunes. I'm just very, very worried...not only about my puny ownership in the stock...but about the impact of DELL on the Central TX area...etc, etc. Just "Porchin," although I'm not on the Porch (Voltaire's Porch which is my sorta normal 'habitat' on SI) ... Just 'venting,' perhaps, my fears about holding DELL stock ... NOW, not three years ago, or two, or one. bonnuss_in_austin ###

To: Mike Van Winkle who wrote (159278)	8/9/2000 11:05:14 AM
From: Jean M. Gauthier	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 176387

I have some comments people, and please do not bite my head off. I invested in dell in jan 99m, and managed to get out at a very slight peofit in 2000. I will probably never reenter, for the reasons explained below, or unless Dell "reengineers" itself again in another business (not likely I think).. Dell is an excellent company, in a very bad industry , approaching saturation and only starting to serve the replacement market. The "easy" money has been made, and now dell, with it's rich valuation will have to base for a while, in the 40-55 range. I expect dell not to be "dead money", but the big returns of yesteryear are OVER. No more momentum driven stock price surges, just slow & steady. I also do not think will be able to reinvent themselves as a "research-driven" company like SUN/Broadcom/EMC etc. or an "acqisition-" company like Nortel/Cisco. The P/E will come down, and dell will "grow" into it's valuation for the next 2 years, focusing on sub or near-30% decelerating growth.. While the stock price is lower now, if Dell's guidance is not "cisco-like", and they "make their number" but are low on the top end, watch out below, 35'ish maybe. 1- Bad industry, PC's 2- Decelerating sales growth rates. 3- Not more "earnings" surprises. 4- Never really "exceeds" the top end guidance and they're are better places to put your money, such as JDSU, EMC, Nortel, Cisco, Broadcom etc. Just my opinion people, but I hope I am wrong. A Dell "miss" and the Nasdaq might take another dive, as ridiculous as dell's prospects are to cisco and emc & sun for example. Have a great day Jean