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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (4086)	8/9/2000 10:52:28 AM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Charles, re:Durons I understand both viewpoints. My unanswered question would be: "where are the sold out Durons?" Is it because the quantity produced is low? The screwdriver shops easily absorbed them? I am positive AMD isn't telling a story. Are OEMs waiting on their motherboards? ie-Jabil My best guess is that Austin is the only ones making Durons and there hasn't been that many made. IBM Canada and the Compaq 5594 are their test beds? What's your best guess? (sorry if I have overlooked it) steve

To: Charles R who wrote (4086)	8/9/2000 1:36:24 PM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<< Clearly we have different opinions! I consider couple of major OEMS signing up a major requisite to say the ramp occurred. >> The p3 1ghz wasn't a real product, and several high level oems 'offered' it. The fact that it's readily obtainable makes it real to me, whether or not oems sell it is another (though very important) issue though at this point it's purely a symmantical debate, as I'm sure we're both upset that Duron's aren't being offered at compaq/gateway/hp. << So what is your theory on why Compaq/Gateway/HP are shipping systems right now? Durons are too good to use right now? AMD is capacity limited and does not want to sell Durons? DIY market used up all the Socket A motherboards and big OEMs are scrambling? Aliens took them away? Intel conspiracy? Something else? >> I never disagreed with you, I was just asking if you had any direct sources telling you this, or whether you deduced it. I agree it's the most likely explanation, but it certainly isn't the only one. << Sorry for the sarcasm but the penchant of some folks on the thread to ignore over-abundance of data that supports a screwed up launch is getting to me. >> Anyone who thinks the Duron launch went well has their heads in the sand as far as I'm concerned. Maybe under the circumstances it was as smooth as we could hope for, but I certainly wouldn't call it a good launch. << The only good thing that van be said here is that the problems are behind us - at least for KT133. That's not saying anything about other platform launches though I feel pretty good about 760 launch. >> I think the most important thing is that AMD has proved to the world that they are sticking around. That's why you're seeing micron, sis, and ali come up with chipsets. I think AMD needs to have their own as well and shouldn't depend on these other companies, but it's nice to have 4 guys behind you instead of just 1. I am also looking forward to the 760 more than these other chipsets, but I'll be glad when there is an overabundance out there. One of the main issues going forward to me from here is compatibility issues for the next generation of processors. If Mustang requires one of the new chipsets from sis, ali, micron, or 760, then we may have this same problem again when it comes out. If sledgehammer requires an entirely new chipset then we go through it yet again afterwards. It's somewhat troubling to see that we could potentially have this problem twice more in the next year.

To: Charles R who wrote (4086)	8/9/2000 1:40:13 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Chuck, <So what is your theory on why Compaq/Gateway/HP are [not] shipping systems right now?> Isn't it obvious? If they announce Duron systems, their K6-2 systems become worthless. The K6-2 production cuts only reached the fab output a few weeks ago judging by the sudden jump in K6-2 prices then. Which means that until mid July OEM's were still buying K6-2's by the truckload, which means there are freight trains full of K6-2 systems still not sold. There are 3 ways AMD could have aided the product transition at the OEM's: 1. Make the new product (Duron) the same price as the old product (K6-2). Not reasonable, since Duron is "too good," and it would hurt revenues. Those revenues would have flowed to the OEM's instead by selling Duron systems at premium prices. 2. Reduce production of the K6-2 by larger amounts than they did. Would have resulted in a bigger loss of market share in Q2 and gotten the OEM's mad. Also, riskier than a slow drop in K6-2's. 3. Force the OEM's to buy Duron's and Athlon's rather than Athlons only, or give incentive deals for that. This is the best strategy, I hope AMD did it. But even if they did, the OEM's would probably just hold their Durons in inventory until their K6-2 systems are sold out. AMD can still count these sales in their revenues because the OEM's don't have the right to return the CPU's. (according to Toni) 4. [EDIT - just thought of this] Create demand for the new systems with an ad campaign or rebate Duron systems ad costs to OEM's. The first alternative would have pissed off the OEM's who had a lot of K6-2's to sell. The second, sounds like a good plan, but the OEM's aren't going to start their advertising until the K6-2's are gone. Petz