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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Engel who wrote (107233)8/9/2000 2:52:49 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul and Intel investors...
Motley fool explains why Intel can't meet demand.
Why Can't Intel Meet Demand?

Decisions that Intel made five years ago are now preventing the chip maker from meeting demand. At the time, some investors and analysts thought the company was overbuilding, leading to worries of idle plants and lower margins. They were wrong. It seems the world's largest chip maker should have spent more and built more.

By Phil Weiss (TMF Grape)
August 9, 2000

While Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) produced excellent results in the first two quarters of the year, it's been unable to meet customer demand. At the same time, its primary competitor, Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD), also performed well beyond expectations. As a matter of fact, AMD has executed well enough that you can make the argument that it's actually on track.

As an Intel shareholder, I have to wonder why a company with Intel's resources can't meet demand. To understand why, it helps to look at the accounting-related implications of a company's capital allocation decisions. I apologize up front if there's too much accountant-speak in this report, but it's important context.

We love our Rule Makers because they generate gobs of cash. But generating cash isn't enough. The company must also put its cash to good use. If it can't, it will eventually implode, since poor investment decisions lead to weak results.

Let's take a closer look at why Intel hasn't met demand.

To make more chips, there are a couple of things Intel can do. One is improve its processes to increase chip yield. Intel has done this. It has also enhanced production by converting its microprocessor manufacturing technology from a 0.25-micron process to 0.18-micron, and ultimately to 0.13-micron.

These changes come with a cost. Intel has to invest some cash in research and development. It also has to invest cash in property, plant, and equipment to manufacture these chips. For accounting purposes, the R&D expense reduces net income. This means that, if it doesn't provide positive results, the company will ultimately see its margins fall.

The other way Intel can increase chip production is to build a new chip fabrication plant (fab). That's what I want to focus on here. Since it costs somewhere between $1 billion and $2 billion to build a new fab, this isn't an easy decision. Even with Intel's method of reproducing the same plant anywhere in the world (copy exact) it takes one to two years to build a new fab. As such, a decision to build a new plant today will not result in increased production today. Even worse, if demand levels off by the time the plant is ready to go, Intel's net margins could suffer.

A company's manufacturing costs can be broken down into two components: fixed and variable. Fixed costs don't vary with the level of output. They are costs a company must incur if it expects to keep functioning. They are also costs that must be paid regardless of sales. They include rent, insurance, lighting and heating bills, property taxes, and management salaries. There's one more that I left out. Can you guess what it is?

Depreciation. When Intel builds a plant and fills it up with equipment, the accounting rules require it to write the building and the related equipment off over their useful lives. This is one of the most significant fixed costs Intel incurs. And, if it builds a plant and finds that demand isn't sufficient for it to be fully utilized, its gross margin will fall as the fixed costs are allocated to fewer units. (It's important to remember that, although we calculate gross margin on an overall basis, it's actually realized on a product basis.) When demand is high, one of the reasons gross margin increases is that fixed costs per unit are lower. If an excess of capital is allocated to building new manufacturing facilities that can't be fully utilized, the end result is that margins will be adversely affected and the company's long-term financial picture is weakened.

Variable costs, which move in close relation to changes in sales, are tied to the number of units sold. They include raw materials and direct labor costs. If Intel builds a new fab and it doesn't run at full capacity, then it doesn't incur additional variable costs.

This is an important distinction. Variable costs represent the direct input costs related to each unit produced. Fixed costs represent static costs that are allocated to each unit produced.

Right around the time that I first purchased shares of Intel (about five years ago), there was much debate among the Wise about whether Intel was overbuilding. In retrospect, it seems that it underbuilt. To some extent, those decisions led to Intel's inability to meet customer demand today.

This raises interesting questions. If both Intel and AMD were able to meet customer demand on their own, who'd win out? Would Gateway (NYSE: GTW) have signed up with AMD for Athlon chips if Intel had been able to meet its capacity needs? Would Intel have had idle plants that hurt gross margins? These are tough choices and I don't have the answers, but they are interesting issues to contemplate.

This discussion touches on a couple of other issues. One of the reasons that Rule Makers continue to thrive in the market is their dominant cash position. Another is the importance of topflight management teams that can make decisions and map out a successful approach for the future. Dominant Rule Makers have a big edge over the competition in capital allocation decisions. They have more cash to spend without crippling their business. Particularly in capital-intensive businesses, this makes it easier for them to maintain their lead.

After giving these issues further thought, I can better understand why Intel doesn't have sufficient manufacturing capacity. But, I also realize that this situation gave AMD an opportunity to succeed that might not have been there if Intel had additional capacity. So far, AMD has taken advantage of the opportunities. Its gross margins are up and it's paying down debt. So far, however, it's been unable to make serious inroads into corporate America, where the real money in this business is made.
----



To: Paul Engel who wrote (107233)8/9/2000 4:29:38 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul and Intel investors...

What's all this bull about a semiconductor slowdown?
More Wall Street analyst baloney?

AMAT looks good eh?
--
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Related Quotes

AMAT
72 1/8
+1 9/16

delayed 20 mins - disclaimer


Wednesday August 9, 4:01 pm Eastern Time
Press Release
Applied Materials Announces Record Results For Third Fiscal Quarter 2000
Record New Orders, Net Sales and Net Income
SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 9, 2000--Applied Materials, Inc., the world's largest supplier of wafer fabrication solutions to the semiconductor industry, reported record results for its third fiscal quarter ended July 30, 2000. Record net sales were $2.73 billion, up 25 percent from $2.19 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2000, and up 83 percent from $1.49 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 1999. Record ongoing net income (net income, excluding one-time items) for the third fiscal quarter of 2000 was $604 million, or $0.70 per diluted share, up 32 percent from $459 million, or $0.53 per diluted share, for the second fiscal quarter of 2000, and up 136 percent from $256 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, for the third fiscal quarter of 1999.

Record new orders of $3.28 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 2000 exceeded the $3 billion level for the first time in the Company's history, increasing 12 percent from $2.93 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2000, and increasing 116 percent from $1.51 billion for the third fiscal quarter of 1999. Regional distribution of new orders for the third fiscal quarter of 2000 was: North America 30 percent, Japan 24 percent, Taiwan 15 percent, Europe 15 percent, Southeast Asia and China 9 percent and Korea 7 percent. Backlog at the end of the third fiscal quarter of 2000 increased to $3.69 billion, from $3.18 billion at the end of the second fiscal quarter of 2000.

Gross margin for the third fiscal quarter of 2000 was 50.9 percent, up from 50.1 percent for the second fiscal quarter of 2000, and up from 48.0 percent for the third fiscal quarter of 1999. Record ongoing net income as a percentage of net sales was 22.1 percent for the third fiscal quarter of 2000, compared to 21.0 percent for the second fiscal quarter of 2000 and 17.2 percent for the third fiscal quarter of 1999.

``Our record results reflect customers' investments in expanded capacity to meet increasing semiconductor demand and in advanced technologies to provide more powerful, portable and affordable semiconductors. Our product portfolio is the strongest in the history of the Company, enabling us to improve our competitive position in all regions,'' said James C. Morgan, chairman and chief executive officer.

During the quarter, Applied Materials announced the largest rollout of new products in the history of the semiconductor equipment industry, introducing 22 new 300mm systems supporting over 80 process applications. The new line of 300mm systems includes factory efficiency technologies that leverage the Company's strengths in process equipment, defect detection and process control software and enhance customers' manufacturing capabilities. The Company received its first significant orders for 300mm products during the quarter.

``The industry outlook continues to be positive. There are significant capital investment requirements in 0.18 micron capacity for Internet, communications and digital devices,'' said Morgan. ``The emerging industry transition to 300mm wafer processing, combined with continued growth of 200mm applications, provides a tremendous opportunity for Applied Materials to supply technologies that will enable our customers to deliver on the promise of the Information Age,'' concluded Morgan.

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those relating to customers' continued investments in expanded capacity and advanced technologies and the transition to 300mm products. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: changes in customer capacity requirements and demand for semiconductors; the ability of the Company to maintain its technology leadership and product position; the transition to 300mm systems; changes in global economic conditions; and those risks and uncertainties described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company assumes no obligation to update the information in this press release.

Applied Materials (Nasdaq:AMAT - news) is a leader of the Information Age and the world's largest supplier of products and services to the global semiconductor industry. Applied Materials' web site is appliedmaterials.com.

APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
(UNAUDITED)

Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(In thousands, except August 1, July 30, August 1, July 30,
per share amounts) 1999 2000 1999 2000
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Net sales $1,490,695 $2,732,028 $3,482,732 $6,644,249
Cost of
products sold 775,025 1,340,126 1,863,973 3,297,428
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Gross margin 715,670 1,391,902 1,618,759 3,346,821

Operating expenses:
Research, development
and engineering 185,796 303,946 523,991 780,509
Marketing and
selling 91,561 128,426 247,597 340,718
General and
administrative 105,689 133,291 258,105 343,998
Non-recurring items 2,515 -- 7,515 40,000
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Income from
operations 330,109 826,239 581,551 1,841,596

Non-recurring income -- -- 20,000 68,158

Interest expense 11,952 12,665 35,328 38,154
Interest income 26,736 48,970 77,440 127,962
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Income before taxes
and equity in net
income/(loss) of
joint venture 344,893 862,544 643,663 1,999,562

Provision for
income taxes 106,637 258,763 199,761 599,807
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Income before equity
in net income/(loss)
of joint venture 238,256 603,781 443,902 1,399,755

Equity in net
income/(loss)
of joint venture 9,773 -- 12,048 --
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Income from continuing
operations 248,029 603,781 455,950 1,399,755

Provision for
discontinuance of
joint venture (9,773) -- (12,048) --
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Net income $ 238,256 $ 603,781 $ 443,902 $1,399,755
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Earnings per share:
Basic - continuing
operations $ 0.31 $ 0.75 $ 0.59 $ 1.74
Basic - discontinued
operations (0.01) -- (0.02) --
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total basic $ 0.30 $ 0.75 $ 0.57 $ 1.74
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Diluted - continuing
operations $ 0.30 $ 0.70 $ 0.56 $ 1.63
Diluted -
discontinued
operations (0.01) -- (0.02) --
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Total diluted $ 0.29 $ 0.70 $ 0.54 $ 1.63
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Weighted average number of shares:
Basic 781,554 809,345 775,444 804,532
Diluted 824,248 862,071 816,946 858,585
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Historical amounts have been restated to reflect a two-for-one stock
split in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend, effective March 15,
2000, and the acquisition of Etec, which was completed on March 29,
2000 and accounted for as a pooling-of-interests.

APPLIED MATERIALS, INC.
CONSOLIDATED CONDENSED BALANCE SHEETS(a)

----------------------------------------------------------------
October 31, July 30,
(In thousands) 1999 2000
----------------------------------------------------------------
ASSETS

Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents $ 868,121 $ 1,342,835
Short-term investments 1,951,254 2,404,493
Accounts receivable, net 1,268,146 2,162,251
Inventories 727,107 1,132,625
Deferred income taxes 341,668 330,889
Other current assets 154,424 179,270
----------- -----------
Total current assets 5,310,720 7,552,363

Property, plant
and equipment, net 1,278,269 1,280,137
Other assets 425,521 386,323
----------- -----------
Total assets $ 7,014,510 $ 9,218,823
----------- -----------

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY

Current liabilities:
Notes payable $ 5,789 $ 40,409
Current portion of
long-term debt 36,484 41,512
Accounts payable
and accrued expenses 1,442,718 1,899,550
Income taxes payable 246,506 397,153
----------- -----------
Total current liabilities 1,731,497 2,378,624

Long-term debt 584,357 574,336
Deferred income taxes
and other liabilities 123,398 135,879
----------- -----------
Total liabilities 2,439,252 3,088,839
----------- -----------

Stockholders' equity:
Common stock 7,932 8,111
Additional paid-in capital 1,443,723 1,614,615
Retained earnings 3,122,337 4,521,384
Accumulated other
comprehensive income/(loss) 1,266 (14,126)
----------- -----------
Total stockholders' equity 4,575,258 6,129,984
----------- -----------

Total liabilities and
stockholders' equity $ 7,014,510 $ 9,218,823
----------------------------------------------------------------

Historical amounts have been restated to reflect a two-for-one stock
split in the form of a 100 percent stock dividend, effective March 15,
2000, and the acquisition of Etec, which was completed on March 29,
2000 and accounted for as a pooling-of-interests.

(a) Amounts as of July 30, 2000 are unaudited. Amounts as of October
31, 1999 are audited.



To: Paul Engel who wrote (107233)8/9/2000 6:21:55 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel  Respond to of 186894
 
Duplicate



To: Paul Engel who wrote (107233)8/9/2000 6:23:22 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul Engel. Re: "Demand has been strong'' and... increasing." Interesting post from the AMAT thread on the conference call:

Message 14189449

Here's the part I liked best:

State of industry: entering the most exciting period in history of semiconductors. Internet driving silicon consumption. Impact of new systems on industry: semi sales are at all-time highs. 155% flash growth, DRAM 110% growth, MP, DSP, ASICs over 50%, DSP over 90%, and ASICS flash and analog over 40%. Never been a period of time in industry where we’ve seen such high growth over such a wide spectrum. Need for capacity expansion continues. Some segments tight and on allocation. ASPs moving up, customers receiving higher levels of profitability, with further increases expected. Our customers are optimistic. We believe the current industry up-cycle will continue."

HL