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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sam who wrote (36432)	8/9/2000 5:09:50 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Part II (rough) State of industry: entering the most exciting period in history of semiconductors. Internet driving silicon consumption. Impact of new systems on industry: semi sales are at all-time highs. 155% flash growth, DRAM 110% growth, MP, DSP, ASICs over 50%, DSP over 90%, and ASICS flash and analog over 40%. Never been a period of time in industry where we’ve seen such high growth over such a wide spectrum. Need for capacity expansion continues. Some segments tight and on allocation. ASPs moving up, customers receiving higher levels of profitability, with further increases expected. Our customers are optimistic. We believe the current industry up-cycle will continue. Bookings this quarter --- (lists by segments) --- shortage of DRAM developing. Greater regional balance. Taiwan expected to show strong growth for FY. Japan nearly doubled their investments this quarter over last. Many of largest customers and I’m facing increasing level of optimism for year 2001. Taiwan I’ve spent time with top executives of foundaries. In one they told me “even with increasing 1.4M wafers per year for next year they’ll be short 1M per year capacity b/c they see strong demand in 2001. “ Korea, capacity shortages developing. Europe strong comm. --- growth leading to strong spending. Philips, Infineon and HP. Infineon working with partners to insure capacity. Philips expanding aggressively. In US semi mfgs --- also looking at increased spending. In Japan ---( lists products) --- expanding, with renewed sense of confidence --- should result in higher spending from top five companies for next year. Logic and systems on chips. We are also seeing bookings momentum for 300mm facilities. $8b in 2001. (?) We expect to have much larger share of this business in future. Each product unit assess opportunities and strategies over next years --- ongoing now --- indicate that next year will be strong in bookings and revenues across all product lines and regions. Future looking very bright. Healthy econ. Strong electronics growth. Increase in fab equip spending. Leading to continued up-cycle for industry. >>>>> Early stages of an enormous transformation. . . Stimulation for change is everywhere. Much will be silicon driven. With increasingly powerful chips to drive the industry (lists upgrades to industry IT systems). Productivity improvements within AMAT, itself. Indicative of what others are doing. 1/3 of silicon is going into the Internet and growing fast. It will soon account for half of world’s production. More are being connected, not fewer. Regardless of application of device, AMAT benefits from every semi-based product. . . we help make every chip every day in the world. We help make chips more powerful, more portable, more affordable. AMAT will remain one of the great infrastructure companies of the new century. Industry still quite healthy. Demand for chips strong. Demand is stronger than we can provide. Points to strong 2001. 1) capacity is still unfilled for .18 micron --- demand for logic increasing 2) tech investments still robust, growing list of customers going to copper-based 3) DRAM investments still coming, with lack of capacity by end of year, including lower than .18 4) Japan expansion seems solid and sig, 10 new fabs and expansions, 150,000 wafer starts per mo 5) Economy seems favorable. Electronics higher level of GNP 6) Telecom, etc. will grow over 30 % of silicon 7) New order will be up again, 3.5B, rev. 2.85 to 2.9B without 300mm, EPS .73 to .75 8) Q rev. will continue to be up sequentially