Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (4193)	8/9/2000 7:19:15 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Tim, you may be right, the numbers look very good, but they do not look as good as CYMI (relativly). Furthermore I see few points of weakness indicating we have passed the peak and have only few quarters of additional growth, but much smaller growth QOQ. Take for instance the quarterly BTB, it is below the industry's at 1.20 and below AMAT's own peak last quarter (if memory serves, 1.41). The improvement in gross margins from last quarter is nw minute (from 50.1% to 50.9 %) and probably will not exceed 52% for the cycle. Last, their DOS have increased again to 71 days form 69 days, all , IMHO, indications that the peak in the stock has been seen, and YOY comparisions are going to become more difficult going forward. I think that AMAT will give us a possible rally but very muted (I believe that $78/80 will no serve as a strong overhead supply). Now that CSCO and AMAT have reported what else is left in the "earnings" ammunition for the "summer rally". I am of the opinion that we will not go the 4500 level this summer (namely, I changed my "tune" on this) and actually will be stalled right around here under 3950 or so, maybe the turn today was the begining of a test of the low we set last week around 3550 or so. Once this is successfully tested. Accordingly, I am going to be selective, when stock gets beaten irrationally (like SSTI and SNDK in the low $50') I'll step in. Zeev

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (4193)	8/9/2000 10:22:26 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Right now after a pretty large runup - I bet on a down day tomorrow. If tomorrow is indeed down I predict another on Friday. Then who knows. Today's late selloff was easy fto see IMHO. I thinks stocks like PMCS BRCM VTSS are overbought. CREE took it on the chin again. Almost shorted at the open - wished I did. I have been too heavy into cash the past week, but now is not the time to compound the error. However - I respect the turnip view more than mine. When turnisp and I are in agreement - I am happy, even if we are both wrong. ggg