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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (6958)	8/9/2000 8:50:15 PM
From: Hassell Anderson	Respond to of 34857

Mucho, I think you have the wrong idea of what I "get". The issue I am concerned about is not whether W-CDMA will soon be ready for primetime from a technological perspective; but rather, what the consequences will be of the demands for capital on the part of carriers. I will leave the alphabet soup geekspeak to the engineering nerds. Those who want to invest well need to follow the money. You're on the right track here, but then draw the wrong conclusion. Imagine you're a bond investor evaluating whether to plunk down some money on a bond issue from two different wireless operators. I think that you would want to know where the cash flows are gonna come from to fund the payments on those bonds. Well operator A says they are gonna deploy CDMA 1x in the first half of 2001 and will receive cash-flows in that time frame. Operator B says they are gonna deploy w(ait)CDMA. It might be ready in 2003, but they're not really sure. Their supplier's don't have a great track record for delivering xCDMA technology on time, but maybe they'll get it right this time. Who cares, its somebody else's money anyway, right? So as this hypothetical bond investor, which operator are you gonna invest in? Which poses more risk to you? What rate of return are you gonna expect in order to compensated for that risk? What are the implications for the cost of capital for the two operators? You also know that there is gonna be a flood of corporate issuance over the next few years as operators fund the costs of spectrum and infrastructure build-outs. By the time w(ait)CDMA is ready, most issuers will be getting junk ratings on their paper. So in my view, time to market is absolutely critical. Not just in terms of gathering market share, but in minimizing capital costs. Waiting will be the kiss of death. Hassell