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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (39239)	8/9/2000 9:25:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

john, i had a guy tell me that in 10 years his cisco, msft, intc and oracle portfolio was going to split 4 times (go up 1500%) in the next 10 years. he's counting on this to retire. msft would be worth $5.9 trillion. intc would be worth $6.4 trillion. oracle would be worth $3.5 trillion. csco would be worth $7.1 trillion. the grand total w/b about $22 trillion dollars. us gdp was $8.4 trillion in 1998 so, 4 companies are going to be valued at nearly 3 times the gdp of the entire country? my friend thinks so. actually, he doesn't think. he just thinks [logic starts] they split so much in the past they will continue to do so [logic ends]. just like japanese investors felt when the nikkei was 40k. this is the biggest stock market bubble in history. $3.60 trades for every $1 purchased - nearly 100% higher than the old mark of $2 traded for $1 purchased in 1929. inflation is statistically adjusted downward while productivity is statistically adjusted upward. hint: they are adjusted b/c reality isn't pretty enough. read up on hedonic pricing and chained (as opposed to real!) dollars. rule #6: rules 3-5 always exist in a bubble - by definition. rule #7: bubble participants (society!) ALWAYS end up worse off (not everyone, but nearly all) b/c they stick head in sand and follow rules #3 - #5. ALWAYS. note one bubble in history where many folks became and stayed rich. i can't. trend following works until it doesn't. just ask qcom investors that bought in near $200. they were a cocky bunch, too. then again, pride cometh b4 a fall. i hope only a few went broke as opposed to a lot.

To: Road Walker who wrote (39239)	8/9/2000 9:36:23 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77397

csco is currently valued at the gdp of spain. so, how many doubles do we get here? is csco worth 5 spains? 10 spains? how about 20 spains? should i get worried at 100 spains? that is where we end up if we extrapolate the past into the future with our head in the sand regarding valuation relative to competing investments. now, back to your regularly scheduled bubble... ;-)

To: Road Walker who wrote (39239)	8/10/2000 7:42:44 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

John, RE: Rule #5: There are no rules. That is one of the best lessons I have learned over the years. The old saw that the five most dangerous words in the English language are "Things are different this time" is BS. Things are always different. In the Great Depression market of the 30's, motion picture stocks and gold stocks did nothing but go up. It would be particularly galling for people nowadays to think that gold stocks would do well in times of depression. In the 50's, electric utility stocks were almost the equivalent of modern day Internet stocks. In the 70's, we went from the era of one decision stocks and the Nifty Fifty to the greatest buying opportunity of the century in a period of two years. Etc., etc., etc. Boy, I love this business.