Chaz,
<< The problem is time. WCDMA will not be in place in commercial operation until long after CDMA/1xEV in current spectrum ... HDR/1xEV ... will be in substantial use a year from now >>
I do not see how it is possible for HDR/1xEV to be in substantial use a year from now. We have had some notice that the 1xEV-DO standard will complete 3rd quarter this year. If the standard completes tomorrow, I suppose, we might see a commercial launch in year 2001, completion any later than September end, this likelihood diminishes, and if we get slippage into 4th quarter, write a 2000 commercial launch off.
As for "substantial use", HDR devices will not be very plentiful or varied when initial launches of 1xEV-DO are made, and user adoption will be highly dependent upon how services are bundled.
<< While you seem to accept the European view that 1xMC is not 3rd gen, since HDR/1xEV meets and exceeds the 3rd gen specs >>
That is not simply a European view. It is a global view (well global outside of North America). You follow Asia closely. It is most certainly the view in Asia. DDI in Japan is holding off implementation. China is holding off on CDMA implementation for this reason (no R-UIM in 1x phase 0, In Korea SK-Telecom will implement IS-95C for network reuse in existing spectrum before they (most likely) build out a GSM-MAP network that will host a UTRA radio interface for global roaming that will bridge to their ANSI-41 network, and KTF will probably evolve data rates using 1x through it's various phases. I've linked SK-Telecom's proposed network architecture here before, but here is one from KTF (and pay particular attention to slide 16 "Roadmap of PCS to IMT-2000"
cdg.org
Now in all fairness, this presentation was made in April of this year. I point this out because to a great degree what constitutes distinctions between 3G v. 2.5G, data, or voice and data, services, at least as it relates to spectrum allocation, was subsequently altered as a result of the WRC conferences held in Istanbul.
Despite this, 2GHz spectrum (the original IMT-2000 spectrum), will still be associated with 3G services, particularly outside of North America, since that is the new spectrum that is being auctioned on all other continents and where technology battles will take place (are taking place) between various modes of CDMA operation (or when standardized perhaps between CDMA and CDMA/HDR operation).
So what constitutes 3G is really meeting data rates in a stationary, pedestrian, and mobile environment, and global interoperability. 1xEV-DO, or 1xEV-DV when it is available appear to be able to meet those requirements even if 1x phase 0 does not, or 1x phase 1 (as it was originally being standardized at peak rates of 614 kbps) does not.
BTW: I am not sure whether or not the 1x phase 1 standardization work in 3GPP2 has been scrapped in favor of 1xEV-DO, or not. I suspect that it might be scrapped.
<< what month and year is your W-CDMA "commercial rollout"? >>
Probably close to the month and year of a 3xRTT rollout.
This kind of gets us back to that "original" IMT-2000 spectrum issue.
Carriers bidding for the new spectrum seem to favor operation in a 5 MHz channel rather than a 1.25 GHz channel in the new fat pipe that is being made available. I'm not sure if HDR changes anything in that regard, relative to optimization of the pipe, or not. The important thing is how the carriers perceive this.
<< there will be zero standard WCDMA then (only DoCoMo's nonstandard "test"), how is it a problem of roaming when WCDMA is not actually available - roam to and from what if there is no WCDMA yet? >>
Well, this leads us back to Eric's original post which was about Vodafone, roaming , and, multi-mode handsets.
Vodafone (Europe or Asia) is highly dependent upon roaming and for them their first multi-mode UMTS UTRA handsets will have to be backward compatible to GPRS, and GSM phase 2+ and perhaps phase 2 for starters. Their subscribers in Europe take roaming (at home and abroad) for granted.
Their American network (Verizon) adds a wrinkle, actually 2 wrinkles (CDMA & AMPS) but today (and for some time) Vodafone has roaming to North America covered with their GSM roaming partners in the GSM Alliance (still a little spotty coverage in the Midwest and rural areas), simply detach the SIM and rent a multi-band phone on departure or arrival here, or for regular visitors purchase a multi-band handset.
No solution for us Verizon users yet, headed the other way, except to subscribe a GSM network to supplement our CDMA/AMPS subscription.
As I've commented before, I would sure like to see a CDMA/GSM handset.
I think before we see one we will see Verizon issue a SIM/R-UIM for it's US subscribers doing the AT&T or Ameritech trick.
I had to chuckle when Dr. Jacobs cavalierly dismissed global roaming as an issue, recently, saying that multi-mode phones would take care of the matter. This is not something he would have said (and didn't say) when Qualcomm was a handset manufacturer.
Multi-mode phones are indeed prevalent (we have had CDMA/AMPS versions here since CDMA launched in 1996).
Regardless, Multi-mode phones are no easy trick, and the more modes and the more bands you add, the more difficult the trick is to execute.
Witness the fact that the TDMA-EDGE community is still waiting for delivery of their 'WorldPhones', and whether or not AMPS is included initially (or ever) remains to be seen.
Nextel did not have to worry about AMPS in it's 'WorldPhone', but Verizon is still highly dependent on AMPS for coverage, even though they have discontinued AMPS only subscriptions, and even though they are converting AMPS coverage to digital at a feverish pace they will be dependent on AMPS for some time to come. PCS Sprint has an easier path here, but a less urgent need.
<< And if the move toward convergence - a close congruence of CDMA2000/WCDMA happens, isn't this moot anyway? There are many pressures and current efforts heading toward just that, no? >>
No.
It was decided last hear to have 5 radio interfaces "harmonized" under IMT-2000 rather than a single converged standard, ... but harmonization is proceeding apace, and most likely UTRA DS and 3xRTT (or 1xEV-DV or whatever it is called by then) is likely to be almost indistinguishable when they finally roll out, and in fact, I am betting that 3xMC will be a UTRA mode of operation.
But wait ... "close congruence" may describe this pretty well, so I'll take back that abrupt, NO <g> ... but I'll stick with harmonization because it is easier to say.
Best,
- (the other) Eric - |
